Showing posts with label reaction lines. Show all posts
Showing posts with label reaction lines. Show all posts

Thursday, 2 May 2013

E Mini S & P: I am getting nervous the trend maybe about to stall + UPDATE 2pm EST

UPDATE VIDEO 2PM NY/US EST.. "what a difference a day makes" as the famous Dinah Washington song goes...well what a difference a few hours make to what i wrote below at the time of the ECB rate decision

No one ever said it was going to be easy pushing through 1600 and those of us who have been around a while and have seen  previous big trend start to turn are also worried. Throw into this mix containing an  uncertain  technical picture a new and  growing awareness in the investment banking industry that we may have peaked at 1600 plus the weakening economic data and you have a recipe for a perfect storm. I will leave the fundamentals arguments to others who can talk the hind legs of a donkey on the macro economics but lets look at the charts and the price data contained therein plus also let me draw your attention to the B-line slow and fast stochastics ( called the ribbons: 7,3,3/ 5,3,3 and 9,3,3 I add an extra set which for me aids visually but Buffy uses just the 5,3,3 and 9,3,3 plus the long stoch or "B line)which look very threatening in the daily and weekly charts. They show what i call the "waterfall" position...about to fall after cresting at the top. We have just seen a complete failure to reach the CL of this purple fork after an initial spike on ECB rate decision:
I have a growing and nagging doubt that we may see a vicious move lower in the next few days. I was surprised ( and stopped out) by yesterdays correction lower but I am not sure we have seen the worst of it.
Take a look at these two charts showing the bundle of down sloping reaction lines that has caused yesterdays fall and indeed if you look back before yesterday you will see a good reaction line correlation with price throughout the history displayed.

 
Now, as for today? I am waiting for the opening at 2.30 BST, 9.30 USA EST but it looks extremely worrying after this mauve ( grey in the RL charts)  forks failure......beware. ( video to follow at 4pm London)

The song What a difference a day makes!!

Wednesday, 1 May 2013

E mini S &P. These two simple pitchforks will reveal prices current intentions


This is one of the dominant current upsloping PF's from a decent time frame:
 This blue D/S PF will draw price to it's centre line. If we fall through the U?S black UMLP then lower we go.
  Heres a more complicated picture:


Wednesday, 10 April 2013

Emini S &P, Reaction+Median Line trade-setup combo pattern.....It occurs over and over again

Heres the diagramatic versions in 2 time frames. This can be used on any market in any time frame.

Heres the actual trade from yesterday: sequential screen shots of charts in both 1 and 5 min TF. The two must be used due to line location issues.Two seperate templates ( charts layouts with different & the same forks plus their RL's) were used as we were tracking more than one set of RL's. Entry is after a HL with a stop below the original LL ( 1555.50). You can finesse such a entry using the 2X+ Bline template but it is not shown here and was not used in this case. The position was closed at 1567. Remember that price distribution around any line is never perfect and exhibits different behaviours dependent on market conditions.


















The above description is is simplified not least for the constraints of my time but the rules of entry are clearly laid out on our subscribers site and easily understood both visually and with our PDF text file and private subscribers videos. This may appear to be a contratrend trade but it is not and this pattern and the inverse  for a rising market are trend following systems and they are simply designed to catch the retracement low or high in any trend up or down ...for details on how to recognise these endlessly reoccurring pattern setups subscribe here or get a flavour and more information from the free trial and try and work it out yourself!