Tuesday, 26 June 2012

EURUSD & S&P U12... Fork management...which pivot to use?

Usually it's a pretty simple operation to draw a classic Andrews PF. You choose the 3 significant highs and lows that describe a swing. However, here's a conundrum.Below is a simple chart of the current emini S&P (U12). There are a choice of various pivots and due to the structure/construction of the recent high there are two (possibly three) pivots to choose from...B & D. If we choose B then we have no centre line touch yet on the black fork. If we choose the lower high D then we have a perfect fit with the blue fork. If we choose pivot 'A Gap high' then we also have a snug fit both along the upper green MLP/MLH and the centre line.

Which to choose? My answer is all three and here is why ... The reaction and median lines on all three are valid and all three forks are 'in play'. The green Gap fork is the one providing the current support that price is using as a ladder to climb higher (albeit slowly).
However my question is about Andrews rule concerning the centre line.This still constitutes an as yet untouched centre line but due to the construction of the 'roof' /high pivots I am not worried about any reversal and will wait for price to return lower and eventually touch the black centre line.

Monday, 25 June 2012

Gold gets ready to tank..continued + ES U12

Gold gets ready to tank

The dominent fork with RL's
price teeters on the edge(LMLP) after 6 touches
 a simple mod Schiff fork with it's reaction lines

Monday, 18 June 2012

Short emini S&P...continued

Time for a small bounce but perhaps not to make a higher high- I maintain this short position and may add to it. Target is as per previous post 1317- 1323 and eventually lower to restest 1300 .Different ML/RL templates shown above but sharing many of the same forks.
The recent low at 1328.75 means you can draw a fork and use any failure bor CL hit as a guide to price strength/weakness.

Short Emini S&P..My setup

This is my trade form this morning. I have just taken this position based on three/four factors.
1. Gap(tiny gap at 1337.00 to 1337.25 form this morning sell off)
2. The downsloping CL from current low TF fork ( all pivots are form after Asain gap up)
3. The reaction line

The trade objective is twofold with a incremental CFD position of .8 lot .. A swing trade of 2 -3 days plus to see a retest of 1300 and a intraday trade with an objective of 1317 to 1320..ie the centre line of the new downsloping fork. Entry method was the above plus indicator entry using the short stochastic ribbons ( 15 min) & B-line stochastic + MACD+BB to catch the first retracement of a new trend.

Thursday, 14 June 2012

USDCAD & ES Sept12...simultaneous high prob trades?

USD  finds support as the ES finds resistance? Gap fork on the CAD works well. This maybe a pivot of significance.. we have RR ratio of 1/4 on the S&P and 1/2.5  on the +$-Cad pos. See previous post for S&P details

Historical pitchforks....cause and effect

 Draw this simple fork below in the emini S&P weekly chart and pay particular attention to getting the pivots right on the lines as even a small error can screw this up. Just because price has popped out above the MLH/UMLP means nothing...the fork is still 'in play' and affecting price.
  Once you are sure you have correctly drawn and adjusted the fork drop down to the 30 min time frame and see the effect this line has on current price
Here is some finer detail in an even lower time frame....
Whats all this mean? You can use the past and previous historical pivots to reveal 'organic' support and resistance levels/areas.

Try this yourself with any currency pair or future contract or indeed any chart.
FYI... with the S&P chart i have nearly 20 historical PF's ( not all Andrews, some are Schiff and very occasionally mod Schiff and others are 'FNL' and'G' Forks) and with each forks reaction lines added you can build a full and revealing picture of price.

Wednesday, 13 June 2012

emini S&P..Head and Shoulders...or continuation pattern?

If it's a H&S it will have to take out the neck line and end up below 1300 (Sep 12) at arund 1291

Wednesday, 6 June 2012