Tuesday, 30 July 2013

Historical Pitchforks.... Irrefutable proof of price distribition around median lines

I just thought that I would show you this current example. You may look at our site and view the charts and say" Wow! What a crazy mess, It's like a bird's nest.... Too many lines man!"... Well, the reason i draw them i because they are the structure/matrix that price moves through. Due to scaling issues ( which are discussed in depth on my site) the angle of any line changes as you lower or increase the time frame. An up sloping fork in the weekly chart will present a horizontal line in the 60 min chart. This example is even better as its a horizontal fork in the weekly chart. It's reaction lines also are extremely effective and more important than sharper angled forks.

Now look at this PF drawn in black. It represents the frequency of these three very important pivots. Many trading educators would say you are mad to draw this because this fork is not in " play" as we have not yet made a lower low.

Now lets look at a lower time frame 30 mins. Can you see the correlation with price?

Now lets drop down to the 10  min chart. Here are several views of price action along thi median line

SoyBeans ( ECBOT) .. have we seen the low? and Emini S &P: Make or break?

 This is a market that can ruin your life ( trading account) in a heartbeat. Trust me, i have been filled on an order and stopped out 200 basis points lower within a microsecond as the market gapped down 5 yrs ago.
It was an extremely nasty business and one i will never forget.
However I always keep an eye out and follow the grains and in particular the beans and bean crush spreads as SB has trends that seem to be on steroids and can be extremely lucrative. Have we just seen the end of the recent eye watering correction? I think so and an long ( in a spread diff with another grain)

 see below up sloping RL which i have drawn over manually as these pivots do not exists in lower TF ( no data) and so the RL doesn't show up.

 Here it is seen as a thick gently up sloping deep red line.I would buy on a retouch which would be a .382 Fib RT and it may well come back to test support at the mid 1350's
The emini S &P seems to have pushed on and up through resisting reaction lines and i am expecting a break out up or down, maybe it will come form our old friend NFPayrolls or some other fundamental data release/ macro news. However if we fail to make higher highs at 1687 i would be worried but it looks promising for perhaps a move higher today

Wednesday, 24 July 2013

emini S &P...Reaction line sell off

The angle of the RL dictates the sharpness of descent

Friday, 19 July 2013

E mini S &P: Double tops? and errrr a slight problem in the grains (Corn) ?

 Risk of double tops?  Probably not but nothing can be ruled out. At the least maybe we will see a vicious retracement to shake out some greedy longs who brought in the 80's thinking we would sail right up through the previous high at 1685.50. Its Friday so for me it has added volatility. It could even break upwards!

Here below is a simple study with most of the PF's from above shown plus their reaction lines. A study like this enables the viewer to understand price in relation to multiple action and reactions that are occuring at any given time.

 CORN: Recent crop reports led to a monstrous gap down last week... one reason you need more than balls of stainless steel  and deep pockets to trade even the mini contracts as an outright open naked position. Thats a big gap even for the grains... 100 cents from 670 to 570 and then lower!!

Thursday, 18 July 2013

Long Palladium Short Gold trade....... Are we nearly at our objective?

I published this chart  exactly as is below and a trade suggestion at Christmas 2012 and the reaction lines are not completed past april/may 2013. There are three different sets relating to 3 different non andrews PF's off different impulse waves plus one classic Andrews PF.
My then views on Gold were well known and during my Linkedin discussion I was a lone wolf crying in the wilderness:

I expect this spread differential  to go to or narrow to - 400 gold under palladium which would tie in nicely with about 1000 bucks an oz gold.My objective price comes from a PF CL not seen above.   I was of the opinion that gold would/will retrace to 900 to 1000 bucks where i think spec demand would help support price and perhaps form a series of low pivots during a period of consolidation. Todays utter and brutal rejection of 1300 is almost the exact same price behaviour we saw at the 1500 & 1400$ level.
This is a controlling swing PF
 Detail shows horzontal RL's drawn off a RL matrix fork : P0 8 Mch 93, P1 2nd aug 93, P2 23 aug 1999

E mini S &P: A higher high?

 Here is just one view of ES with multiple PF's applied and their reaction lines. One RL from the down sloping blue Schiff PF catches the eye with mouthwatering accuracy. Again the topic of line location is paramount. In the daily chart ( top) we have drawn an unbroken brick red manual trend line along the same axis as the reaction line. In other words we have drawn bang on top of the automatically drawn RL seen in the daily chart. Hey Presto! ....When we drop down to the 240 min we see the location of the RL
( unbroken in dark brick red) and beneath/below it is the dot-dashed auto drawn RL. Both of these lines are valid and an empirical study /research shows that both lines are effective. Want to know how to find the true location for any line in any time frame? LINK

Tuesday, 9 July 2013

E mini S &P: Approaching troubled waters at 1650?

 Heres just one of scores of important PF's with their reaction lines. Each PF simply reveals the relationship between 3 pivots.

 Here is a "big picture" study showing the black fork that we are trying to get to.
 heres a even bigger look at the ES. The green up sloping PF ( see below) was a non touch on its CL. Are we then ( according to Dr A) to believe  we are heading back up to the 1680's where the black CL ( above) target  is ( according to a rough price and time projection)? Or will price fail at the 1550s again and fall even lower?

Monday, 8 July 2013

E mini S & P..... Trade

This shows Fridays low pivot on the d/s ML and the up sloping PF LMLP.

Friday, 5 July 2013

E mini S &P... ahead of NFP

I am not sure we have a CL touch here. Is this CL failure an omen?... 

Thursday, 4 July 2013

Tuesday, 2 July 2013