Friday, 28 June 2013

E mini S & P: Keep it simple stupid... use the lines

This is one of those modern rather trite 12 step phrases that has the ability to irritate. It certainly is not my intention but simply to show quite a simple Andrews p-fork and the effect on price at its upper parallel. Actually there is a great deal more going on than just the Andrews line. Its a confluence point for several median and reacion lines plus the line I have shown below. SO, where from here? Is 1594.25 the low? Can we remain/close this week above 1600. There is no easy answer. I beleive we may see a couple of failed attmpts today to get back above 1600and so drift lower to the low 1580's. Whatever happens i do not want to have any entry around this big figure of 1600

UPDATE: Well it just shows that Fridays always have that little treat up their sleeve. The point is the distribution along the reaction line you can see that propelled price back up. I went long at 1597 ( on the way down) with a stop at 1595- was stopped out and have watched with horror as we have now pared almost all the losses. Are we to make a HH?

Monday, 24 June 2013

E mini S &P and Dow. Do you know where it's heading?

Targets for the same PF centre line are YMU13: 14244 and ESU13: 1543.00
It's not a simple as it seems to know the location of a price on a line at any time (as regular readers know i have made this one of my celebrated causes) and have studied the anomalies of charting platforms and data representation models such as bars,candles etc. For ES U13 i give a line location ( its almost horizontal in 60 min TF and below) of 1541 to 1544 with 1543.25 being my optimum location. However this has nothing to do with price action which sends it there. Hence i never usually leave limit orders in the market for any chart/instrument traded unless in exception circumstances. Remember it may fall like a dagger and pop up leaving a pin bar. It may fall like a piano (!) and tumble through where it will consolidate for a day before popping up and hey presto a pivot is born. Or it may tumble like a leaf and flutter painfully lower until it touches and then recoils. Of course it may fall straight through and not have anything to do with this line but I think there is a high probability of this line being in some way the near term bottom/low for a while at least. In addition there are two reaction lines (up sloping) that are in the perfect location and angle; one from a fork with AB79/D credentials ( this is my pivot formula to assign a value to pivots).
 Theres a potential trade there and possibly a large one but its impossible to say until price and time converge on this line location and we see what fundamental influences and emotions are at play on price. Only then can I make a judgement call on future price behaviour.
 In the grand scheme of things we should expect a bounce here of the LMLP of this fork:

 BUT then view it in a larger context and we are still headed lower?It's the fork within a fork concept

Thursday, 20 June 2013

Fed: The result for emini S&P, Dow and USDX...continued...

USDX: Bounces off LMLP-- You can't ask for more than this from a chart with multiple pitchforks and reaction lines see yesterdays chart and previous

Heres the ES U13

Heres YM U13

Where will we go from here? Well if last nights fundamentals have only caused another drop of 40 or so big basis points from 1646 to 1606 then I am amazed considering the impact of what was said. Technically we have solid support at this level on both YM and ES but a nice contracting pattern is best seen in the 240 min YMU13 chart above with a series of LH's and a series of HL's- but only just. The reaction lines can be supporting price an todays low on both YM and ES. I suspect we go lower but maybe another top first?
Lastly for today. How do you get out of a corner? In other words how do you draw a down sloping PF with a rising trending market? Here's one of the answers. Use a Schiff PF. I find the mod Schiff usually has too sharp an attitiude whereas the Schiff  seems to work better. The reaction lines of both are important and are simply (IMHO) part of the fabric/matrix of price but often worth identifying and watching: Heres daily ESU13 with a Schiff PF off pivots 1,2& 3 in the uptrend. ( note the location of the blue UMLP in both time frames differs)

Wednesday, 19 June 2013

All quiet ahead of the FOMC. USDX and ES and YM

Continuing from yesterday's chart the US Dollar index (ICE US) remains rangebound. If we apply Andrews theory it looks weak as it has failed to meet any objectives but this can often happen in a non trending sideways market and such conclusions should not be drawn too quickly. The black LMLP still supports price (see below) even though the CL of this fork was never reached and this line has previously been responsible for several pivots. Again weakness is indicated and a dip down to 80.00 is possible and more likely but the impetus for whatever direction we will move is more than likely to come form the Fed.

The emini Dow looks like it's topping out along the reaction line again even though we have popped up through it. We need to take out the prior high at 15290 (YMU13) and the emini S &P again looks toppy. Again the FOMC will be the stimulus for price direction.

Tuesday, 18 June 2013

USDX and Emini S &P plus free post Wall st opening video

Will the US Dollar index ( ICE US) hold here? It appears to be bumping along the organic support offered by the plethora of LMLP's seen below and the reaction lines: This is the same chart I have been publishing for months and can be seen in the link here and in multiple previous posts. A break above the twin band of reaction lines ( thin red) will be bullish for the short term.

The emini S & P appears range bound and makes very heavy work of the 1640's with critical resistance from multiple ML's/RL's obstructing further upside gains. I am publishing the Sept YM chart as it clearly shows this current scenario (with the solid brick red down sloping reaction line from a weekly PF) better than either June or Sept ES. Jne ES is shown at the bottom. A break above 1650 may well come from data releases
 (CPI) or indeed tomorrows Fed news.
Check out this video showing crucial live reaction line analysis

Friday, 14 June 2013

Emini Dow and S&P ... Ouch! Thats a fail... but are we building an inverted head and shoulders pattern

Look at the black sharp angled fork...this is a fail so far and a nasty little dip which stopped me out after 5 mins at b/e entry price 1635.00 on the second attempt at a leg up after the opening. I have no view now. It could go either way but I keep in mind that a sharp sell off would give us an inverted V ( actually more like an inverted U) and add the momentum to go lower -back to 1600 or are we building and inverted head and shoulder s pattern. * see lower chart

Whatever way you look at this the YM is a failed fork and the ES ( with the same fork) is a CL touch. What conclusions would you take from this? Weakness or stength?... I guess ill have to stay bearish

Emini S &P/Dow plus USDX (US Dollar Index ICE US).. Is this a new low pivot?

 Is this a new low pivot on the LMLP of this up sloping black fork in the USDX ( sorry for the price window peeping through). It has supported / stopped price falling further but we do not seem to be making enough upside progress away from this line and if we simply bump along the line we will fall through. This is correlated by USDJPY which is also lacklustre on the upside.

DOW: It certainly looks as though we are about to see a higher high in the ES & YM. In the YM M13 the CL is not yet reached and contrary to my bearish opinion yesterday what we saw was pure energised bying price action.Is it a game changer? Well, look at the d/sloping fork using the highest high in the recent months 15506 and the pivots visible here in the chart...its a non touch so i guess I should have been warned for a reversal. We now need follow thru andto break the pattern of LH's ie a break above 15290 area.

S&P: we hope to see a break towards 1650 from here but have already broken the d/sloping ML  and various D/sloping RL's some seen  below;
see previous posts

Thursday, 13 June 2013

E mini S & P + Dow plus USDX

 The emini S&P and Dow are having a bounce off the psychological 1600 level (ESM13) for the second time but is suspect we will be back there tomorrow or next week. an inverted V or a series of sharp inverted V's and then down through 1600? Or am i missing something and we should all fill our boots here with ESM13 at 1618??... No its no good, I can't see this being the end of the retracement ....i think its just the beginning of carnage and mayhem and a major shake out this summer and perhaps an autumn rally? The acid test is to draw the current PF off all the pivots including the Andrews P0 low and watch for progress

I know this chart below looks like i have used a kids wax crayon on it to draw the horizontal mauve PF but its to show you the power of the horizontal lines which work better than any others proportionate to time frame. I guess this rally may reach the middle around 1623? I didnt have the balls to get in long today as I do not trust this market and do not like the price action and have missed out on 5- 10 big points or so.
USDX below

A small bounce for the US Dollar index today as it pops up off this LMLP pitchfork ( which is a failed CL) then down thru tomorrow or next week? Or up from here? USDJPY puzzles me as i can see no support here at 94.00 but its a tad oversold so I wait and watch but am( was!) looking for 92.50 for a long.

Monday, 10 June 2013

E mini S &P and Dow: take great care at this 1640's area

Post USA S&P ratings 'stable' outlook the market does exactly what we think it should not but yet look at the pitchfork. An incursion at the bootom andalso now at the top which is a pin bar in 60/240 min. I think we may sell off deeply

Heres the downsloping brick red reaction line thats caused problems before in the mini Dow

Tuesday, 4 June 2013

e mini S & P: Change of behaviour continued... has the rot set in? are we going lower than the previous low? Does 1600 beckon?

Look at the reaction line highlighted in the charts below. The fizz has gone out of this market and its struggling to make HH's and now we have a 4th LL

and finally( reaction lines are brick red and dashed/dotted))