Friday, 30 April 2010


Price has retraced 100% to the long term break out orange UMLP (Metatrader chart) and the lower MLP in two different ML sets i have been using. If you now look at a 4hr chart we have a retouch and i am long at 94.17 with a 10pt stop. More to come..........
17:19 Ouch! Stopped out with 10 pt loss but still 43 odd pts up on the day and looking to get long again!. Where now ?

USD JPY trade...cont

OK. I am out on the UMLP and short for a pullback (remember i am bullish USD vs JPY overall and do not want to be caught short on the USA opening) with the chief objective of getting back into a long position. For this i will use the stochastic setup on Buffy's template above.

14:49...My short at 94.55 was closed with a measly 5 pip profit( i was impatient and v.wary of being short on the opening) but then again... better than a loss and add it to the 52 pips from the morning long trade makes a respecatble result.....but where will price go from here?
The reaction line and a double top formation (5 min TF) has caused price to drop back to the CL where it appears to have support for the moment..The stochastics are pulling back nicely but i am flat for the moment until i see where/what happens with the R-Line.

USDJPY trade-Update 3 plus a further thought on Euro$

Ok....I was stopped out at break even but am still very bullish for the USD. We are still trading in the range between the two lines above and i went long again early AM Friday at 94.03( bang in the middle of the two lines with a 15 pip stop under the blue supporting line which is now at B/E again as the market has moved higher. If you remember Dr Andrews sideways count method using two MPL's where you have a ranging/oscillating market bouncing up and down you also remember that he says that price usually breaks out in the same direction from where it came ie up (good!) and with the count method i counted at least 9 hits not including the first with a range of 9.90 to 94.17 = 27 pts x 9 = 243 basis points or 96.30 as the first target. That seems a long way off and and equates to somewhere on the green UMLP (see earlier long term MT charts) if we take a more conservative count of 4 on the 15 min chart that still gives you 108 points or just about 95.00 which is my objective on the green Cl (94.86) before we hit the reaction line. While writing this price has risen quickly and we have a new high of 94.42 so the breakout is underway and we have taken out all previous highs except the one at around 94.76
11.11am...............Stochs are v toppy on several TF's with my B-line (55,10,1) on the roof with the 7-3-3 and 21-10-4 not far behind could take profits here and re enter (if you have Ensign use Buffy's template to get a MOF trade entry) or stick out the coming retracement. I will stick it out for the moment but am aware of several short term UMLP's where we may get a pullback.

Here is the current Euro$ chart with reaction lines extended....self explanatory.

Thursday, 29 April 2010

USDJPY trade-Update 2 plus a thought on Euro$

After reaching 94.25 the USD has weakened slightly and we have a perfect Fib 61.8% RT bang on the bottom of the 5 min Bolly-band. The stochastic's look perfect for another upwards effort but it remains to be seen if we can take out the previous highs of 94.33 and 94.29. The inability of price to take out the former 94.33 on Monday led to a small double top at that level and a big sell off back to 92.80 but price just keeps coming back up and hammering away at this levels/lines....I have no doubt in my mind that we will take this out but it maybe left until a crazy Friday if price looses momentum & energy at these levels. If we fail to take out at the least 94.30 today we may see prices drift lower which will put my long position at 94.00 in jeopardy but i have a B/E stop and may re-enter lower. My objective for this trade is the green centre line (below) at around 94.80 but
before the reaction line (top right diagonal in dull red) which as you can see below have a profound influence on price.

Here's a recent Euro$ chart......

11.47pm................. stopped ot at B/E,....alot effort for no gain BUT also no loss!.. I am looking to go long but not until tom/morn and am looking at the CL at 98.85 level but am off to bed so will wait and see what i wake up to.

USDJPY trade-Update

OK, US opening saw USD higher vs JPY and we have broken through the white UMLP and the longer term pinky/red that has been holding price back for days but not convincingly broken through on a higher TF( see small 60min chart). Higher highs and higher lows BUT we still (in my opinion) need to take out the high at 94.30... today...On the hourly chart we have a retouch on the far ,so good. stop to break/even.

Long USD short JPY....Hagopian

Using the 'Mr Hagopian rule' is a good tool to confirm a rising market. In the above white ML set it doesn't matter what you do with it IE 'Mod Schiff 'it or 'Schiff 'it or leave it as a straightforward fork or which P0.....Price still never makes it to the CL. In addition i can count another two long term forks of similar type (Hagopian or CL failure) that confirm a rising market and price now is bubbling under the upper median line parallel of the white fork. I am now long at 94.00 (with a 20 pt stop) which was a rather messy entry using a multiple stochastic system and Bolly bands... i should have been more patient and waited and tried to catch a better entry as price traded in a narrow oscillating wave range this morning in the Euro session between 93.90-94.10 and i picked a long in the top 3rd of the range...Not ideal but with price now testing the white UMLP i expect it to continue in the range until it pops right through ...then the classic long entry of a retouch would be possible. I use multiple time frames and ML's in all and mini forks in 1,2 3 & 5 min TF always looking for price failures to reach the CL or to confirm price direction.

Wednesday, 28 April 2010

Important Euro $ ...a study of the GAP..Important discovery

In my weekend basic Andrews type analysis on the Euro$ and it's gap i had tried to look closely at the current levels and price activity. However i always have believed that long term ML's effect current price and over the last few days have spent a considerable amount of time trying to see if there might be any long term ML's that tie in with whats going on here at these levels. What i found surprised me...I went right back to monthly charts and drew some obvious and not so obvious MLsets and then played around and 'Schiffed'/Mod 'Schiffed' and the results were dramatic. If you reproduce (with great care at Monthly level) the same P0P1P2 of the above ML's you end up with some impressive lines that price undoubtedly interact dramatically with price and the number of gaps along these lines over the last few years is is the result in Metatrader with day and 4hr below bringing us up to date with today's dramatic position. If you add in the Reaction lines (not shown except for one in dotted blood red in 4hr chart) for the long and medium term forks you get an invaluable tool for price forecasting but however good these lines are you still need an trade entry setup. If you go back to my weekend chart analysis of the Euro$ you can see it all makes sense and ties in with the action/reaction/MPL's etc.

Tuesday, 27 April 2010


Here is the current morning position with GBPUSD...A possible short on the aqua blue UMLP looks good in the 240min and the daily and the sliding parallel 1 works a treat but what about the mess in the 1hr with price way over the line. ...not so clear now is it? Certainly not a high prob trade but worth watching.

The difference with using P2 as per the daily charts

Monday, 26 April 2010

Euro$ The gap continued...............

Here is the effect of the smallish gap from the open of Sundays Asian session on a Euro$ 15 min chart. It seems that there is an important MPL at this level which may have influenced the formation of the gap last night and price cant yet break through today.
I am long USDJPY at 94.00 and looking for a $ breakout from the current range bound activity of this currency pair. Post to come.

Sunday, 25 April 2010

Important Euro $ ...a study of the GAP

Remember Dr Andrews attached great importance to gaps.

Guitres......The Weekend

Every weekend i try to post something NOT relevant to markets and Tech analysis.
Here is a local town 5 mins from my house and 40 mins from Bordeaux. This is Guitres on the Isle River in the north of the Gironde Department in SW France.

Below the main village square by the river was holding an Poultry Market

This man had had a very liquid lunch and was in high spirits as he danced down the street!

Friday, 23 April 2010

Canada update

The Metatrader feed is's the re-test in Ensign and it's a perfect touch. Again i have removed templates and indicator windows for greater price-action clarity.

This time i am confounded by price action. Straight back through the up sloping LMLP and into a new fork and right up to the UMLP. I am stopped out of a short position with a 20 pt loss.

Correction US$ CAD

I couldn't work it out and then i realised that i had used the wrong P0 pivot for the ML set. Here's what it should be. Now it all makes sense and the reaction lines were working against price and its a sell on the retouch of the LMLP. Price failed to get the fact price failed to get anywhere and just walked the LMLP until it fell through this morning.