Friday, 30 September 2011

Wednesday, 28 September 2011

Comment on EUROPE: Leadership!...What leadership?

Leadership.......Mmmmm?! Perhaps something the UK knows about both from the historical perspective of its lack-of and the weakness that then follows and perhaps also the perspective of the positive effect of strong leadership.......However Europe seems hopelessly lost for strong leadership with Germany again for historical reasons reluctant to take centre stage
(politically at least) and Europe is left wanting in their hour of need.

George Papandreou ( below) - the grandson of the Prime minister 'Papandreou' who Churchill backed (at the great expense of other Eastern European countries who were to be left to the soviet sphere of influence-The "naughty" document etc) to save Greece from Soviet domination/influence after liberation (withdrawl) of German occupation forces in 1944 and the subsequent civil war /ELAS and EAM .British troops ( sizable numbers) fought in Athens in 1944 principally to prevent a communist takeover...churchill could already see Uncle Joe's intentions and sadly FDR's health was in serious decline.
This family of Papandreou's has presided over the Greek political scene for many generations and has to be the main reason of why Greece has been pulled backwards from any chance of social and financial transformation, political independence or any progress- always by one and another of the Papandreou family..........

Crude and the FTSE/ formation? continued

Reaction lines work on all time frame BUT Its not what you see -its what you do with them.

Crude and the FTSE/ formation?

Oil looks as though its struggling and the DAX and FTSE at least seem to be building a top and i am most interested in what the slow and fast stochastic ribbons and MACCY D are showing.
No trade setups -we could see Dec Dax retest 5600 on the downside. the pink dashed line in the DAX chart is a trigger line from a high TF fork that is not visible here but the TL itself has kept showing up at the major tops...It looks as though we may see a short setup later after the US opening.

Tuesday, 27 September 2011

Copper and chart scaling- log or arithmetic?

One much overlooked aspect of charting(along with the dimension of 'time' itself) is the question of whether to use logarithmic or arithmetic scale charts. This is of particular interest for anyone out there using linear lines- trend/reaction/multipivot/Andrews forks etc. In this particular case we are looking at the reaction line in thick brick red in the above charts of HG Copper. left chart arith/right chart Log

Basically logarithmic-scale charts plot changes on the vertical axis (or Y axis) in terms of percentage change. A change from $1 to $2 is a 100 per cent change so would appear exactly the same as a change from $50 to $100. (Most charts are technically semi-log charts because time is still shown arithmetically).
The chart below is a normal or arithmetic-scale chart. Note the Y-axis values are equal distance apart. You can also see how the reaction and median lines appear much differently from the other chart. It is often necessary to keep re-drawing reaction lines (as I have do) on both artithmetic and the log charts, which can lead to some extremely impressive correlation between price and the reaction lines on a ultra low time frame like 1 min- where i choose always to enter a trade regardless of if it is a short term intra day trade or a 'keeper' ie, a position trade to be held for days/weeks. The reasonfor this is i do not have deep pockets for stops and those traders (John Crane for example) who place their stops so far away from the market you need to get on a bus to visit them I often suspect of being educators first and traders second( if at all)! As the saying goes...Those who can trade- those who can't teach.
Great care should be taken to find the true location of a median/reaction/warning etc line and the phenomenon of a line exisitng in two different chart postions and having a visible reaction in each seperate location is one secret i observe every day.
left Arithmetic- right Log

George Lindsey + BBC

Usually you only come across this somewhat bizzare market 'guru'
(and you know on the whole what i think of Gurus ) with his complicated
chart pattern 'Three peaks and a domed house'.
However Ed Carlsons book
(George Lindsey & the art of Technical analysis) has some very interesting nuggetts not least the 'Lindsey timing model' and various counts and cycles. This is certainly complementary for exponents of Babson/Andrews & co. His patterns are also in there.

"Everything in the universe moves in rhythm. Nothing happens at random.The underlying factors are,in their turn,subject to the same rhythms as the final product.
The whole is not the sum of the parts , but both the whole and parts labour under similar influences".

His Principle of equalisation: "When one formation falls short of the normal duration, the next one equalises the total elapsed time by becoming longer"

On another point...check this trader out
...doom and gloom..

(not really..It's just the end of the Euro (as we know it) and the begining a new bear market)

Thursday, 22 September 2011

Friday, 16 September 2011

Wednesday, 14 September 2011

EURUSD.....'Look, No Hands'!

Sorry- what i meant to say was no median lines ..or at least none that have played a part in the price action showed here from today and yesterday except the aqua blue line that has resisted at 1.3734. Here is a classic example of a rising reaction line channel. Each reaction line belongs to a seperate fork in a 4hr and daily time frame.
Where is price going? A test of 1.38 where my 1972 Fork lies which needs a retouch and represents a .50 Fib RT.

Tuesday, 13 September 2011

BNP Paribas..La banque d'un monde qui change...Je pense pas

(Link to background)
Dear reader, the slogan of BNP where i have my checking account here in France roughly translates as ' the bank for a changing world'. French business and real estate/property is shamfully lacking access to credit (apart from state and regional projects). It is/was
(even prior to la Crise in Autumn 2008) common for me to hear folk complain about not being able to get house loans/mortgages regardless of their income but yet BNP Paribas and all French (non mutual) banks has lent irresponsibly to the Greeks that finally the day of reckoning approaches. How many times was I told with a wagging finger.......( in a Gallic accent)
'Zee Anglo saxon banking model izzz finished and YOU and your Anglo American friends are responsible for la crise (the crisis)"


Monday, 12 September 2011


Touble at the CL at 1.3625 with a tiny touch or kiss showing weakness. Two simple forks shown here from the two pivots in this recent directional move. At some point i suggest we will see a retracement to the line i mentioned last week form the oldest fork in the EURUSD chart. This would be 1.3850 area however fundemantals remain precarious and i am overall bearish until the 'PIGS'(Portugla,Italy,Greece, Spain) and toxic banking issues are resolved.( see below).
The Euro has suffered across the board against other currencies but against Cable it has taken a beating with a low of .8528

0938 GMT [Dow Jones] Espirito Santo downgrades Societe Generale (GLE.FR) and Credit Agricole (ACA.FR) to sell from neutral, and BNP Paribas (BNP.FR) to neutral from buy, on rising concerns over their liquidity profile, solvency and exposure to sovereign asset risk. Espirito Santo has screened the banks for their short-term liquidity profile, exposure to risky sovereign bonds and loans, and Basel III capital adequacy. "By our analysis, SocGen screens particularly poorly. It has the weakest liquidity profile and poor Basel III solvency," says the brokerage. Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas fare poorly too given their "weak liquidity profile" and "large troubled asset exposure." Espirito Santo cuts its target price for Societe Generale to EUR15.5 from EUR39.5, for Credit Agricole to EUR4.6 from EUR9.1 and for BNP Paribas to EUR28.1 from EUR69.4. Societe Generale shares are 9.7% lower at EUR15.75, Credit Agricole is down 9.7% at EUR4.88 and BNP Paribas is off 12.1% at EUR26.17. (

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 12, 2011 05:38 ET (09:38 GMT)

Thursday, 8 September 2011


Back to the horizontal reaction line thick brick red) that we saw in action supporting price earlier this week.

Wednesday, 7 September 2011


There's a high probability trade here ( see yesterdays chart)

Tuesday, 6 September 2011


Long term reaction line (thick brick red) from monthly fork runs through the chart at a effective angle and has already supported/resisted price more than three times since early 2010 .Yesterdays sharp move up was a simply release of energy but after the steep move up we are now moving lower past the 100% retracement as the energy dissipates and expect to see the psychological 1.40 level tested.