Tuesday, 31 August 2010

Long sept Soyabeans- position closed-THANK GOD

See what i mean about price reaching the modified CL and yet not reaching the "normal" Andrews CL..this is a classic example Fail and reverse

Long sept Soyabeans- position closed

I have taken the profit at 1020.25 and am flat on all lots. Perhaps this market has more to give but i try to adhere to my initial trading plan although on the downside now i have given up my position totally it will be v difficult to get back in. Price could go to the 1027 area where several classic Andrews forks have C-Lines and indeed a failure to reach there would signify a price failure even though the modified CL has been reached.

Long sept Soyabeans

The modified Schiff fork (orange) works a treat and on entry i was risking 4 points (the bid/offer spread being 1pt) with a objective of 10 points at the 1020 where i will take partial profits and whack a trailing stop on the balance.

Heres a quick update a 1712 euro time...progress on the upside but a reaction line holding price back. Obviously want to guard against a px failure in the event of not getting to the various CL's so will endevour to move stop to B/E ASAP

€$ continued

heres another view on another chart setup of euro$.. notice how the new upsloping ML set has a reaction line (from a completly unrelated-yet 'price tested' & viable fork in a much higher TF) running almost bang in alingment up the centre line? This gives me an exceptionally high probability rate of al least some resistance/retracement.

€$ and €£

Below is a price failure in a downsloping green fork (and to a lesser extent in the suspect blue fork)

Below is micro 1min TF showing support from a reaction line under the green UMLP of the fork shown in previous post.


Monday, 30 August 2010


Following on from last Fridays post here is the EurChf 30 min chart . Simple chart formation: Double tops.... Simple fork then a simple CL price failure near to the reaction line and a simple return downwards to new d/sloping CL ( dotted) plus simple reg divergence on the MaccyD. Sometimes simple is good!

Friday, 27 August 2010

$JPY update continued

If i was a betting man ...which i am not i would look for a possible short here for a small dip withing the next hour but its just too much of a gamble and reward/risk ratio doesn't stack up and even with the indicators stacked up like below it does not have the high prob we all aspire to for every trade entry.

EURCHF as the last post below

€$ runs out of energy and heads lower

here are 3 different shots. The bottom three are my reaction line web. Only the solid lines are forks.

$JPY update & long EURCHF

Price falls sharply from the reaction..now we will see if we hold on the LMLP or another RL and is that a possible long entry point

UPDATE 1615 eurotime
Bernake speaks!- below price bounces straight off the 50% reaction line perfectly
I am also about to take a long Eur short Swissy position .. charts & setup& reasoning to follow


Two views of USDJPY one a 144 tick chart on Ensign and the other a 15 min. Activity around the reaction lines shows me that this is just one fork 'in play' right now....however price looks undecided even after the US data and could go either way. I suspect we will get through the RL and go higher.
PS: The Ensign platform has the added bonus of drawring the 50% reaction lines which are invaluable as price interacts with these as much as with the full 100% period RL.

Thursday, 26 August 2010

CLv continued

Here is a slightly unorthodox Median line set using the midway point on the dashed white line between P0 & P3
You can tell the viability of any fork by looking for price action around the reaction lines and in the 2nd,3rd & 4th RL there is good resistance activity. Other RL's seen on this chart come form previous forks on the last controlling swing (see here for explanation of this method) and i had
already decided yesterday afternoon that there was a high probability that we were going to see a reversal of the recent bearish movement. (see E-Signal charts) and was looking for a pullback for another long entry haven taken profits am today with yesterdays long entry at 71.31.

Wednesday, 25 August 2010

Sept Crude Oil

Self explanatory....................

$ Swiss- px failure and EurGbp px failure

I have found that it is always the most recent swing low that determines price action . Here in this 5 min $CHF chart regardless of the fact that the previous thin black ML set (with a lower pivot P0) is in touch with the CL, it is the thick black fork with the more recent P0 pivot that now determines price.

Wednesday, 18 August 2010

Crude oil reversal? Update

Here is a daily and 60 min continious CL chart. I have added reaction lines to the 60 min chart and they tell the whole story. The point is are we going to the green CL in the metatrader chart?
One moment i am convinced then the next i am doubtful and having just come into to office i now see a potential bottom forming..I guess we are going lower but just take a look at the daily chart we have the pink fork where there is no chance of a CL touch and we are still making our way to the royal blue CL which if time and price judged will be at about 100-105 bucks

Crude reversal update

Well ! All bets are off on the centre line failure now we have given up 100% of yesterdays gains late yesterday,overnight and this morning and we are at 'crunch time' today ie the phyc level of $75.00. If we take out the low then we should see prices fall back down to the green CL.

Gold- further to fall?

Tuesday, 17 August 2010