Friday, 29 July 2011

EurUsd cont...cont

The second screen shot shows /dispels the rule that P0 should be behind P1. Look at the RL that works perfectly and this type of fork often describes perfectly the limit of a move and even more a CL failure of this fork works well to predict coming weakness. Obviously not in this case as on the back of weak US data we see the white ML ( see previous posts) has supported price and there was little appetite for price to go lower.

EurUsd cont................words of wisdom for today or my 5 centsworth::::Do not trade until you have your own system with your own rules.

Friday comes round again and I expect we will see continued Euro weakness with the next level on my list 1.4185 where lies the green CL ( not shown here but on this link)

Below we see the failure to reach the balck CL in the 4hr chart but the support offered by the blue ML ( see yesterdays post)...which way will it go..back up for a second attempt at the blue CL or down.? I do not care but once directional movement is confirmed i want a piece of it.,

UPDATE 1300 pre US opening:
Euro time Euro falls sharply. now a retouch on the white ML andthen down to the green as per my post this morning (above). Look at the short stochastic ribbons bounce downwards off the
B- line stoch in the 240 min chart (below right).

Thursday, 28 July 2011

EurUsd cont......1,43 figure seems a problem

see previous post

EurUsd-still lower i think?

I have added the blue almost horizontal fork to this long term study. A somewhat weak bounce off the CL today but i am yet to be convinced that price will break into the 1.4350 range
The black MT4 template shows the same fork( white) PLUS REACTION LINES but in 1 and 5 min. Horizontal forks have greater power viz a viz reaction/warning lines contained by them.
There are no trend lines or MPL's or any arbitary lines added. All lines in red are reaction or warning lines drawn automatically by the cutsom indicator but some lines have to be re-drawn in lower time frames as they do not show up if from daily forks hence the unextended redrawn red line in the black MT4 charts at the bottom.

Wednesday, 27 July 2011

Hand drawn charts EurUsd back to 1975

This is one of my long term hand drawn A3 sized charts off the office wall. monthly euro$ with data going back to 1975 (when i was a 13yr old!) Remember that EuroUsd used to be called the ECU / the European currecny unit. Please understand these are not my charts that i have kept updated since 1975 but 2011 CRB edition with my forks and reaction line studies added by hand and this years monthly bars added by hand!

If you have a platform that allows you to please draw this fork:approx values but unmissable pivots
1. 1975 .7300
2. 1979 1.15
3. 1985 .5600

Once you have done this you will end up with one of the most effective forks fork conatining price and we are still in it and it's RL's work superbly.
Below i have superimposed the values of this fork accurately onto my monthly daily and 240 min eurusd MT4 chart. The CL is visible only in the daily and 240 min but the line was touched perfectly in early July. Incidentally see how the daily chart shows a deep penetration and the 240min only a touch in the same chart? secrets indeed to understand - i had posted about this on this blog last year about the true/real position of any reaction,media,warning,trend line.

Monday, 25 July 2011

+Eur -$ 1.4372

draw the new fork of the most recent pivots ( deep blue) and you will see we need a sharp move up to get at the CL which lies at well over 1.44


using two reaction line templates i take a intra hour short term short euro position( obj below 1.4370 original stp 5pts now b/e) on the confluence of various lines. Am looking to go long if 1.4350 holds (or will expect a effort to get to the d/s powder blue CL).

Saturday, 23 July 2011

New Pitchfork Tool for E Signal EFS Script under development

I am having a E Signal custom PF line tool coded. In effect this tool draws a PF with reaction and warning lines so i can establish a RL grid off any controlling swing/important pivots.
At the moment it is early days and many problems but progress is being made at a steady pace and there are processor issues for the tool to be visbible in any time frame.
This script i am told will work in ES 10.6 and the new 11 version
Anyone who is interested should contact me.

Friday, 22 July 2011


all is revealed when you see the reaction lines(thick red) on the chart on the lower left.
It is highly probable that we are heading back up to have another attempt to pass through the RL at 1.4475 ( see both left hand upper and lower charts)

Thursday, 21 July 2011


Using the recent low to insert a fork + RL/WL grid off the most obvious pivots you get a grid that even in such a small TF has great correlation with price action. link

Wednesday, 20 July 2011

EurUsd cont

for your info look at the previous effect of this trigger line( dotted white):


Re previous post/+Eur -Usd
price hits the trigger line in dotted white and position is closed;


Remeber this line? see last weeks and previous weeks posts. Expect a nice bounce off the long term green CL even if we do see a retest.

Stopped out at b/e on my limit order once filled on a retouch but long again at 1.4183 with a 10pt stp. If it fails to rally expect a series of small waves before a move lower below the line.

£$- cable again

Classic support on CL and Fib level and warning/reaction line (dashed brick red) from the reaction line grid...the fact of a possible high probability long setup is confirmed by the higher 60 min TF chart with a bullish candle formation. The result is ( after a re-pierecing of the CL/.50 FibRT level) is a nice bullish bar up and a test of the UMLP then after a perfect .618 Fib RT (of the second move up ie CL to UMLP) a second attempt to go though the UMLP is underway which i have no doubt will be succesful.

Tuesday, 19 July 2011


Due to the dreaded re-format of my PC and XP i have been unable to post but here is a simple study of various time frames using a multiple reaction grid which eminate from important high time frame forks. ( see how the lines shift form time frame to time frame). The two yellow forks seem dominant.

Thursday, 14 July 2011


This looks quite bullish re the candles (highlighted) but i am siting and watching and waiting for signs to reinforce my bearish stance.


See previous link:
regarding long term reaction and Median lines...
as they say in the crown court "i rest my case your honour"
The euro looks exceptionally weak to me and I think we will soon pass lower from the current trading range above 1.4000 to the 1.39's and prices such a todays 1.4180 will be distant where to get short? A break above 1.4275 would however make me change my mind short term but the feeling in Euro-land ( this blog's author lives in France) is pessimistic amongst the Paris financial community in 'La Defense' (the Wall St of Paris) and the fiscal rot taints many more countries than just the P.I.G.S ( Portugal,Ireland,Greece,Spain). So the future? A two tier euro with Germany and perhaps France at the top? What would you do to sort out this problem in countries such as Greece where taxes are generally (and culturally) not paid? (a friend is a Doctor/hospital surgeon in Athens and tells us that most of his colleagues usually have a friend in the tax office who for an annual 'brown envelope' will reduce the income tax you owe to a nominal sum).