Saturday, 20 October 2012

ES Z12..looks like top ( continued) and AAPL...Apple bearish candle formation-at last- The end is nigh

This is one of the stocks that has amazed me for years...One of the 'Darlings' of Wall St along with Google and all the rest of the massively overbought/price inflated stocks that have never seen a decent retracement since 2008. They have defied gravity far too long but a candlestick pattern like this in both weekly and monthly charts perhaps indicates a coming correction and across the broader market .

Friday, 19 October 2012

ES Z12....Looks, smells and feels like a big top building here.

Above is a ES Z12 CFD chart with the expiration effect of Sept ES seen clearly after the HH on/after 18th September. The same fork is shown below in the continuation chart but the frequency is screwed and thus does not reflect the frequency of the UMLP as seen in green above.

Thursday, 18 October 2012

T-Bonds...bias remains lower (ZB Z12)

Remember this high time frame fork in the top chart? Here's the background and also here
In the middle there is a detailed study incorporating reaction lines plus other pertinent forks and the lower chart is a 30 min showing the reaction line that caught and supported price last time. This time we will go lower and the pattern suggests we are building a top...This also dovetails nicely with a possible coming equity rally.

Monday, 15 October 2012

ES Z12... A subtle change of behaviour or business as usual?

Following on from this weekends posting on YM Z12........ here's the ES Z12 and todays performance so far.

Sunday, 14 October 2012

Mini Dow shows me the way when ES & $SPX and Russell can't

I am beginning to have serious concerns about the health of the recent leg up and current trend after the QE3 announcement back in early September. All the 40 + big S & P points gains seen on the QE3 announcement have been pared and we are back at crucial 1420 support levels on the ES Z12 and 13200 on the YM Z12. However I am not yet running for the hills. Using ML/RL analysis ( LINK) which shows the possibility of support here at 13226 ( not a LL viz a viz last weeks low) or 1420 ES and failing that perhaps then at 13085 (YM). See above the bearish continuation inside bar pattern which signals a short entry on a break of Fridays low of 13226. Personally i would not enter this way as it is a Friday close/weekend break bar which has caught me out before. I will watch and wait but further falls back towards 13000/12995 now look likely.
The ES has critical support form up sloping reaction lines at 1415 and phyc support at 1400.... an interesting week lies ahead.

Tuesday, 9 October 2012

ES.... Looks rather obvious to me...back to the 1428 area?

Three pivots 1, 2 & 3 and their relationship with the BC swing is clearly illustrated here. I am not saying we can pre judge what effect their reacion lines will have but you can already see the first RL ( from pivot 3-BC) is having some effect on price action even if the next moves goes lower- which it should - towards the CL. I have strong support marked on the chart form a monthly reaction line that is horizontal at 1435 and we may see a bounce off there which may provide  a short entry level. This reaction line you may see as a horizontal MULTI PIVOT LINE but if you put your mind to it you can find all the important  MPL's which are either ML's RL's.
PS:That horizontal black line you see is a PF & YOU should draw it if you are trying to make sense out of the ES using pitchforks...try it and see the serious support/resistance this fork offers. There is a high probability that we are heading back and maybe topping out for good here ...or we may bounce off it again (P0 6th Mch 1338.50/ P1 27th Mch 1419.50 & P2 1262 on 4th June).

Wednesday, 3 October 2012

ES continued

There are more important forks(and reaction lines) missing from this chart that could be drawn but the high time frame forks that appear horizontal in this chart ( the green and black lines) are the most important as they have a higher probability of supporting/resisting price and creating a new pivot and/or reversal.

Here above are 2 more detailed MT4 charts showing the recent effect of a band of down sloping reaction lines.All ML's are in green. See yesterdays low found support on the green horizontal ML.( pink dots/dash are gaps in 5min chart..please ignore)

Tuesday, 2 October 2012

Emini S&P.. Where Has The QE Rally Gone? plus ES chart update

a fail CL touch for the D/S grey fork and a nice touch on the blue up sloping LMLP ( arrowed in pink). Simple forkwork within th structure shown yesterday

Now a bounce off the green historic ML....remember multi pivot lines ( as per Morge etc) are simply historical ML's and you can find them.

Monday, 1 October 2012

Emini S&P.. Where Has The QE Rally Gone?

An oversimplified example of historical median lines showing support and resistance levels. Looks like we could bust upwards?

French fantasies?...New Budget dreams and the 3% rule??

A more complicated study showing the same and more historical and local ML's and reaction lines
Lastly, In the article listed here Mr Parnell quotes "This QE elixir has led to a great decay in financial markets, however, as any sense of true price equilibrium both within and across asset classes was completely lost some time ago."