Equity Markets (DAX, SPX) continued: I will spell it out! Why this is the turning point and why you should look for a short entry.....Continued...continued

OK, we are at the point where we should expect a sharp break one way or the other and as you know we are in the bears camp ( still not flustered and still resolute about the conviction of a change in trend which will only change if we see a serious break towards 10000 in the DAX) . In the DAX we are back at the original centre line targets from the historical Andrews pitch forks ( see previous recent posts in this thread but below in green and black and blue and black underneath in 2nd study). Please note there are no arbitary drawn lines below all are either pitchforks or reaction lines are where i have drawn over lines as they appear in other time frames.
There is no doubt the market seems bullish and the recent eye watering series of daily bars and HH closes could lead one to reasonably expect a further break upwards especially when we look at last weeks weekly bar which is a real healer for the downside damage done recently. However - "Au contraire, Dr Watson" -as i said last week we are not yet short and do not want to be against this trend yet but this is the critical area to watch (DAX 9615 to 9700) and there is no rush "per se" ( or at least for today)....and just think about, all those greedy professionals - fund managers and the rest of the investment banking industry all rubbing their hands together in expectation of 2014 and beating their hands in approbation on the proverbial 'table' as they wait with growing expectation for the market to just keep going up.....after an already exceptional bull run of in excess of 5 years ( we could argue more years pre 2009) with fundamentals that were simply - to be polite -strange, yet now with the macro economics starting to make sense of recovery what should happen?? Well i ask you? The inverse to what is expected perhaps as markets are never rational & if this simply is the force of huge purchasing power of the industry at work driving us higher? Well if thats the case then there still must be a point at which we simply all wake up and realise the massive asset inflation that has taken place since Ben has been at the wheel and now ----all change- and a different era-Janet- yes, Dear Janet ... But seriously, how to spot a bull trap? When the whole world comes back to work in 2014 and thinks its biz as usual
But forgive my behaviour, please remember i am always impartial and as corruptible as anyone so back to whats important -the  trend( and i am not prejudiced either way- up or down (!). If this is a crucial turning level we will need to see a range established before going lower( a top must be formed in time/candles/bars) but the bulls remain in high spirits and could drive the ES to a new high but i suspect that the reaction line will hold it until snapping point at 9700 DAX and 1850 ES, and we will see it fall but its not going to be an easy ride and we are currently flat ( no position). I think we will see our nerves pulled to extremes..false break outs up and down like we saw 17 to 23 jan this yr.
The charts below show mostly the DAX and also the Spoos. They show the main two centre lines from the forks and also the down sloping reaction line form one of those mega forks.
Here are the basic charts ...see we have both mega forks in play plus the second reaction line from the blue PF a few weeks away and closing fast..perhaps that will be the reaction line to score?

and below are today's close ups  Also below to confuse you further ( sorry lack of time!) there are manually drawn lines that relate to the location of those aforementioned centre lines in other time frames ( see my article on line location or "mirror lines"). I am happy to send anyone a link to the daily video but we no longer post them freely due to time constraints but we offer free material to non trade enquiries .

Lastly: Email for free market report: Why you should buy Soybeans @1350-00 and sell ES at 1840.00 ( both ref today's post date date of 18th Feb 2014). New grains trend PDF available..............

The DAX . Are we near the climax? Plus the Spoos

 I warned all subscribers on 20th Jan  that this is highly probably the top:http://www.linkedin.com/groupItem?view=&gid=68663&type=member&item=5831076538010865666&qid=9b611dee-a3d5-4c15-a590-25636601237b&trk=groups_items_see_more-0-b-ttl

here's todays comment:http://commodity-analysis.co.uk/Daily_Chart_&_comment.html

 Heres what i published on 15th Jan below

These are the big daddy's Pitch forks/median lines that can be drawn on the DAX. I suggest you draw them yourself and see what you think. We still have to reach the black centre line & are not far off and it appears we are running on fumes to get there having now made a HH but one more push and then i suggest we could then see a similar topping pattern & even though the fundamentals particularly for Germany are promising the overall outlook in Europe is mixed. As someone who lives in France I should know and I wont even start writing on that divisive subject. Instead I want you to observe the different line locations in each and every time frame and notice the difference. If you are shrewd you will be able to realise the limitations of our data presentation systems such as a 2 D bars and candles, Price Vs time etc and will be able to not only see market structure but use this simple example to your profit.If you cant make sense of it or what I am on about check out our site www.commodity-analysis.co.uk. Below under these simple DAX forks is a more complicated Spoos example.
Infact the situation isnt simple as these lines have different locations in each time frame.

Heres the emini S &P and another historic reaction + pitchfork study.Its a very different picture with a singular lack of higher highs. The reaction lines are drawn by auto indicator. I have gone over them with manual trend lines and you will see the thicker lines are manually inserted. Look at how they define the range.. supp + res etc.

E Mini S & P: I am getting nervous the trend maybe about to stall + UPDATE 2pm EST

UPDATE VIDEO 2PM NY/US EST.. "what a difference a day makes" as the famous Dinah Washington song goes...well what a difference a few hours make to what i wrote below at the time of the ECB rate decision

No one ever said it was going to be easy pushing through 1600 and those of us who have been around a while and have seen  previous big trend start to turn are also worried. Throw into this mix containing an  uncertain  technical picture a new and  growing awareness in the investment banking industry that we may have peaked at 1600 plus the weakening economic data and you have a recipe for a perfect storm. I will leave the fundamentals arguments to others who can talk the hind legs of a donkey on the macro economics but lets look at the charts and the price data contained therein plus also let me draw your attention to the B-line slow and fast stochastics ( called the ribbons: 7,3,3/ 5,3,3 and 9,3,3 I add an extra set which for me aids visually but Buffy uses just the 5,3,3 and 9,3,3 plus the long stoch or "B line)which look very threatening in the daily and weekly charts. They show what i call the "waterfall" position...about to fall after cresting at the top. We have just seen a complete failure to reach the CL of this purple fork after an initial spike on ECB rate decision:

I have a growing and nagging doubt that we may see a vicious move lower in the next few days. I was surprised ( and stopped out) by yesterdays correction lower but I am not sure we have seen the worst of it.
Take a look at these two charts showing the bundle of down sloping reaction lines that has caused yesterdays fall and indeed if you look back before yesterday you will see a good reaction line correlation with price throughout the history displayed.

 

Now, as for today? I am waiting for the opening at 2.30 BST, 9.30 USA EST but it looks extremely worrying after this mauve ( grey in the RL charts)  forks failure......beware. ( video to follow at 4pm London)

The song What a difference a day makes!!

E mini S &P. These two simple pitchforks will reveal prices current intentions

This is one of the dominant current upsloping PF's from a decent time frame:

 This blue D/S PF will draw price to it's centre line. If we fall through the U?S black UMLP then lower we go.

  Heres a more complicated picture: