Friday 14 January 2011

€$ & USDX

The RL's from yesterdays/last night's posting have held so far as I envisaged but extreme care should be taken at this point. I am flat on all short US$ positions and will- in due course- be looking to pick up some $ but only if we see confirmation in both the DX and the €$ pair that price has/is reversed. We have seen a good first bounce of the brown RL that i identified some weeks ago BUT very rarely do you get one bounce. Price will come back and retest this line and that is the danger point and we will look for 'tells' as to if this line will be breached or it will hold.
Price action/behavior & mkt structure should be closely watched and anomalies in the 'usual suspects'...Macd,RSI, SMA's, Stochastic's, Trix & ADX etc. (The pink line in the E-Signal chart is purely a arbitary hand drawn support line and has no direct correlation with price but a fall though 79.20 & 79 figure would obviously consign the USD to lower prices. One possible scenario is another expanding top in €$ and we need to see lower highs and LL's viz a viz 1.3456 & 1.3345

Lastly.....Gold and Equity Index's ....It looks to me as if the S&P, Russell, FTSE, Dow are topping out. I was premature/impatient earlier this week but we are seeing a major CL failure in the FTSE and we are on a majore LMLP in the mini Dow a break of which ( viz a viz Andrews) could indicate a short entry on a proper break of 11650-11645.... yesterday's previous low. Gold has not made it over the D-sloping RL mentioned before.












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