E mini S &P.. Don't join the stampede for 1600 just yet.... wait cos we may have another volatile move down

Emini S &P....Touchdown!

E mini S&P: Everything points to another attempt on the 1590 to 1600 area this week

However this fork seems a struggle. I expect we may see a RT of at least .618 of todays early move up that seems to have run out of steam at 1587. Historical ML's lie at1583

E mini S&P... we have to take this pitchfork seriously now... a return to the 1550s is possible

After the touch yesterday on the blue forks UMLP ( see below) we have to expect a RT but in the context of the weekly and monthly charts previous two big tops at this level we must get through its not unlikely that we see extreme swings around this area. God forbid we have a triple top and I am not suggesting that but we may well make a big pivot before breaking out upwards later this spring/summer.

todays video: from our site: http://commodity-analysis.co.uk/Video_reference.html

Here is the daily chart for the second and most recent top at this level in 2007:

 

and heres the daily chart for the first top in 2000 at the same range/area:

 

here they all are in the weekly chart and our current position at the same level

Emini S&P... Pre US GDP data

  Emini S& P reaction line analysis: http://youtu.be/0uhV73XByV8

E mini S&P: " A meeting of two lines"

Todays S &P video:http://www.commodity-analysis.co.uk/Video_reference.html

Emini S & P....URGENT DROP...

It doesnt matter that the story is rubbish that caused this fall or that it's retraced 100%... this is a game changer tehcnically and signals a move lower. I have seen this before many times and suggest we maybe topping out after a glorious run up today with a nice strong trend. WE may go higher first above my shorts seen here but we are going down
Heres todays free video ( pre nonsense rumour) http://youtu.be/SmmrtlMFrW8

Emini S & P...Making a break for the centre line?

e mini s & P...due for a bounce?

  Video commentary:http://youtu.be/nE5s5c975vAhttp://youtu.be/nE5s5c975vA

Emini S & P...correction underway

 Commentary: http://youtu.be/IaB2oIu3Qo4

E mini S & P: Is this move a game changer?.... Gap Pitch Fork reaction line PLUS Gold support along the median line

 The only reason I am long here is the red thick RL not the black up sloping ML that served us so well a while  back on 5th April. Since i have begun to understand  and learn and truly observe price distribution along 'organic' lines (such as reaction and median) that support and resistance can be understood within a trading context.  Look at the black up/sloping ML and then look at price distribution along it in both a low and high time frame. In the 240 min it looks as though it has held...so far. Are we in for another down day? There are a bunch of  down sloping  RL's waiting to hinder price and also a few upsloping BUT none are as important as the reaction line you can see on the chart above. Currently  at 1557.75 ( June 13) we are now at the .382 Fib RT level of the move down from 1592.75 to 1538.50. The chance of a further fall exists and should be taken seriously . A break below 1548 will be critical. However I am always drawn back to the fact that the Emini S& P is a rigged market. Rigged in my favour... Why? Because equity markets are have a long mentality and are always viewed from the long side unlike many other asset classes. They spend much more time going up and then have sharp falls like yesterday but in today's financial climate equities are  still the most attractive asset class as who is buying gold and precious metals and Copper or grains or softs etc. With the exception of various fixed income markets such as Bunds equities will remain well bid. The real question is will this higher low of yesterday remain intact?

 Gold has found support on the MLP of this important fork plus has touched all its Schiff forksCL objectives ( see yesterdays/previous posts). If viewed in the daily the shadow/wick pierces the line but the candle bodies remains mostly above....its the art of reading price distribution again. It's a bounce but perhaps not the bottom.. trend take their time

Gold.....critical support here at 1365

I wouldnt touch it with a barge pole but it will be interesting to see if it holds here on the LMLP of the fork seen in the earlier post( PO 542.54 on 14/June2006, P1 16/03 2008 $1032, P2 681,40 24/Oct 08)....remember it could easily dip 10 bucks under and still hold the line in the 240 min ,daily chart etc .
 

Gold and Emini S &P

 At last real progress on the downside and $1415 trades as i write in the mid morning european session on Monday 15th. $150 bucks is a big move and the trend is clealry gathering momentum. How far is this going to go? Well many are talking of $1000 and of course it's possible but i have my eyes peeled for first1369, then 1350 and perhaps around 1338  where we have major LMLP's from two up sloping forks. The Schiff fork in thin blue ( the upper smaller down sloping Schiff fork/see Esignal chart

below) was the support in 2011 and it's upper ML was the May high last year and its reaction lines have worked a treat. I expect another attempt at 1400 and perhaps soon...even as early as today.

Gold..be careful at this level...theres something there. + Emini S &P

Whats the blue MPL doing?

 

http://www.commodity-analysis.co.uk/Gold_update_11th_april_2013.html

Todays emini S & P commentary

Emini S &P, Reaction+Median Line trade-setup combo pattern.....It occurs over and over again

Heres the diagramatic versions in 2 time frames. This can be used on any market in any time frame.

 

Heres the actual trade from yesterday: sequential screen shots of charts in both 1 and 5 min TF. The two must be used due to line location issues.Two seperate templates ( charts layouts with different & the same forks plus their RL's) were used as we were tracking more than one set of RL's. Entry is after a HL with a stop below the original LL ( 1555.50). You can finesse such a entry using the 2X+ Bline template but it is not shown here and was not used in this case. The position was closed at 1567. Remember that price distribution around any line is never perfect and exhibits different behaviours dependent on market conditions.

The above description is is simplified not least for the constraints of my time but the rules of entry are clearly laid out on our subscribers site and easily understood both visually and with our PDF text file and private subscribers videos. This may appear to be a contratrend trade but it is not and this pattern and the inverse  for a rising market are trend following systems and they are simply designed to catch the retracement low or high in any trend up or down ...for details on how to recognise these endlessly reoccurring pattern setups subscribe here or get a flavour and more information from the free trial and try and work it out yourself!