Wednesday 17 November 2010

€$ Prognosis- How far is this going to fall?

Below is the Euro$ chart in E-Signal. If you think of it we have fallen approx 800 basis points in 8 days. This is no correction and the USDX after a real whipping this year should be heading towards the pink UMLP and black CL ( in the daily chart) which is approx around the psychological level of the big number 80.00. This would equate roughly with €$ reaching the green long term weekly CL at the confluence of the black LMLP at just a pinch below 1.3300. In my Ensign and Metatrader charts there is not a great deal of support between here & there viz a viz reaction & median lines (that i can currently see) & with the Irish /weak European economies issue being pushed to the forefront we may see a 'run' on the euro as we saw last year when it wa pushed down from approx 1.50 to 1.20. I am not suggesting anything like that but 1.3300 doesn't seem too bad in comparison. When a retracement comes it will be savage and no doubt anyone caught short will be punished but we should see some indications/sign before that happens and at the moment the Euro looks incredibly weak. On a micro ( see MT chart) level we are stuck in a channel and expect one more 'cycle' before breaking lower.





















USDX

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