Thursday 23 September 2010

US$ Index...continued

Continuing on from recent post on the USDX and with the current fashion being "let's whip the US$" i can't see a potential bottom yet and think as i have said before that it will be the reaction line to the right of the red arrow that may put the breaks on. Initially i thought that we were a few weeks away from that RL (based on a average bar/time count) but with price falling faster than anticipated we could arrive sooner than we think especially if we penetrate convincingly below 80.00 and continue towards the various centre lines all bunched up there . In addition there is another problem with reading reaction lines and that is often price action appears to 'react' before it actually physically touches the line and the reverse situation is also true that price can penetrate/pass through the R- line but then have a decent/ascent parallel to the RL but on the opposite side.
Below we have a decent fork in the 60 min chart with a 125% warning line plus a couple of RL's. This is just one of many forks that price is acting/reacting with and you can see the first RL works a treat but the second seems to have little or no effect. Normally i would add the 50% reaction lines but in this case they also have no effect on price action. So my prognosis is still bearish for the US$ but i am confident that we will eventually have upward movement for the $ and looking at the Euro (vs US$) this morning it is beginning to look slightly tired & exhausted
(an Oxymoron i think ?!!) but only a fool would short the Euro which still has the potential to push towards the upper thirties towards 1.4000










No comments:

Post a Comment