Sunday 30 May 2010

Euro$....I missed this one..Ohhh dear!!!

Oh dear! I took my eye of the ball on Friday afternoon....I got caught up in the short term Euro rally and never stopped long enough to look at the bigger picture which was staring me in the face...multiple price failures (on multiple forks..see the red in the Metatrader chart and its the same in Ensign which i am not bothering to reproduce here as it's a single data feed) to reach the CL. You will be happy to know i paid the full price and although not a massive drop in the grand scheme of things & markets at approx 13:30 USA (East Coast) time 19:30 my time in France the fundamental news that Fitch had downgraded Spain sovereign debt by 'one notch' sent the market into free fall. My buy orders below the market were filled and stopped out at (obviously and not unreasonably) painfully below my order levels/limits.....Ouch! However sensible money management means that even this is a lesson i can smile about...just, and the week on balance still had huge potential re the $CHF trades BUT i now presume my thoughts of a Euro reversal are over and out the window and we will go lower if we take out the previous lows at 1.2150 area..perhaps considerably lower if this happens before price tries again on the upside..unless and it is a big unless we hold on the larger forks LMLP and rally towards the CL.I have seen stranger things happen. But the bottom line here is it doesn't look good as price has failed to get to the CL in just about every single ML that you can draw in the above TF's and higher.
Whenever i loose objectivity like this i go back to the E-signal daily/weekly/monthly charts and do a full 'work out' and try to find new potential support levels...Not of course for a trade entry but purely for possible potential future support either from ML's or RL's etc. Revised long term possibilties for the USD against the majors to be posted on this blog after i have studied the possibilities.










PS: Here's the detail on a 1 min chart ( the red lines are reaction lines not Median lines ) and it doesn't look much on a larger TF like 30 min but it was still an 80 basis point drop!











As with most weekends i provide something not related to technical trading so here is an old favourite from my generation

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