Tuesday 2 February 2010

March Crude update...where from here?

OK, so the final result was that price found support at the lower MLP (also the trigger line of the failed ML) but now where are we going?





Lets take a more detailed look at another longer term ML i am using on another chart ( CL#F) and hey-presto you see that it all makes perfect sense. If you put the original example above and this longer term ML below you can see that the Lower MLP's are the same( as the trigger line plus the mod schiff ML and that they have captured price and frequency of the price movement perfectly. I have left the two original ML's as per the Metatrader example above and also included them as thin ML's below. The longer term ML below has the % quartiles marked in turquoise and the 0.618 Fib levels in pink.
Have a good look at how important these inner lines (both % & Fib) are in the below chart and how they attract price at important swing highs and lows

Now to the 60min chart below and not only showing the important green long term ML lower parallel but also the .75 turquoise line now acting as resistance.

Below: Should price fail to rally from here and loose momentum /energy it may well be time for a break out on the downside into a new ML set. We already have price interacting within the down sloping violet coloured ML but also another sideways/slightly upward possibility is the red ML set where the recent high of just under 84 bucks( Jan 11 2010?) is defined by a small penetration of the upper red MLP. There are also a few other options for ML's and classic market structure and formation would look for a rally (if price can consolidate first at a level higher than the left hand 'valley' swing low) to fill the "V" shaped 'hump' or 'mountain' but if price fails to move higher and tests the green lower ML parallel again i would watch carefully bar by bar and also watch RSI, various Stochs and MACD plus many others. At some point I will be listing the indicators i use most with ML trading and which i find most useful in what time frames and in what market conditions as i am conscious of having stripped these charts down to pure ML 's drawn on charts maybe not enough to explain how to frame a trade and maybe too simplistic.

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