US$ CAD

Two charts showing US$ vs Canada pair. The red reaction line( from the larger aqua/blue ML set) sits bang under the LMLP of the up sloping green ML set/fork. You can already see the effect on price being supported up the' ladder 'and a long position taken on the LMLP -should the chance arise- and also confirmed by indicators for a high prob trade entry would be my idea. Objective-green or aqua/blue centre lines. Care should be taken of lower TF reaction lines and stops bang under the green LMLP/reaction line

What's going on with the bloody Euro?

This is a nasty business! The Euro vs US$ and more importantly for me personally (as a Brit living in France) the Euro vs GBP. Here above is Euro$ 15 min and i have added the 240min to give some context to the ML set in the 15min chart. The 15 min chart shows a nice 'tight' ML set where price is oscillating very cleanly on the upper and lower MLP's and the centre line. If today's low of 1.3257 holds then we could see a rally back up to the aqua blue LMLP(240 min chart) next week. This pattern formation is not as bad as it looks (to me) with a previous higher 'high' and no newer lower 'lows'.

Emini S&P..(June) update

This contract is one of my pet hates and i rarely trade( this is the first or second time in 2010) but everything has come together for a second short on the UMLP. The reaction line worked a treat and we have got to be going towards the green centre line today,plus we have the US$ going from strength to strength VS Euro,Cad,GBP and others. I went short again at 1202.50 June EP( initial 2.50 pt stop, now at B/E) in the AM Euro/UK session. If we do not make it to the green centre line today and return again to the green UMLP i will close all positions. We are currently on the yellow CL.

$CAD

E-mini S&P June update

as per last post "follow it down"...it being the reaction line.

EminS&P June & CHFJPY update and June Crude

A confluence of 2 UMLP's ( the green and yellow ML sets)) and a reaction line (not to speak of the multiple indicator reg divergence) has caused price to drift lower. To me this stinks of a major double top formation and it can be seen clearly in the 240 min chart. I have great respect for double tops or bottoms and they are among the most reliable chart formations to give you a serious chnage in direction/re-tracement. No ones knows if this is anything more than a small RT and i shall assume thats what it is but will follow price down the reaction line to the LMLP of
the aqua blue fork or to the green CL.











Oil has failed to make it to the yellow CL and has been slowly making lower Lows and lower highs. Today we should see price drift lower and fully expect eventually to see the LMLP breached.

Nice Result.. i surprised myself ! ...CHFJPY

stop to 87.57

3.57 pm: Its not normally that quick or easy as that but price fell rapidly(too rapidly perhaps) but found solid support on a very long term ML/fork centre line. Indeed it is fair to say in my opinion the mauve/magenta CL is the dominant pitchfork/ML set and price osscilates around it with great precision. In the meantime price is again back up on the UMLP(!!!) where i started from and no profit was taken but i have now a B/E stop. The B-Bands are not particularly encouraging but this is now a free trade and i still believe that price will go lower as per my original/current indicator observations.

CHFJPY trade setup

CHFJPY











Short at 87.49 on green UMLP. OverUnder divergence using 7-3-3 & 21-10-4 ( for details of trade set up see earlier posts http://medianlinetrader.blogspot.com/2010/03/bullish-overunder-divergence-yen-trade.html)
stop 87.62 (13pts) above previous high from yesterday. Bollinger bands shown (other indicator windows collapsed & MA's hidden).

$Swissy-update

Price has taken out the previous SH at 1.0660 but is currently finding resistance at the yellow
dotted CL ( Metatrader chart). Position closed at 1.0675 @ 17:31

US$ Swissy

15 min and 5min US$CHF. Long on the retouch of the breakout of the UMLP of the green downsloping ML set and the confluence of the Aquablue centre line. 10pt Stop. The reaction line from a higher ML set ( not visible) can be seen in dashed red just above the centre line of the green DS pitchfork/ML set.
16.07 stop to break even. Price touches dotted CL on yellow MLset.

S&P(EPM10), Eur$ and £/$ & gold

Both cable and Euro$ both are on the UMLP on the 60min chart. The same situtaiton applies to E-mini S&P and Gold.

S&P emini (June) & $ CHF

As per my post on Friday we have some downward price action although no one yet knows to what degree. In the meantime ( using my Schiff ML set in blue) price came back upto the centre line and retouched/failed to penetrate the first red reaction line and fell away sharply. I have added a new Mod Schiff in green which shows use right now on the LMLP but if you move point C to D then we are bang on the centre line.









$CHF below. Nearly touched the green UMLP and pierced the upper Bollinger band as it touched the top of the reaction line (red) and ran out of energy before drifting lower. Perhaps a retest of this reaction line will provide another indicator/pattern based trade entry point.

Crude Oil

30 min -May crude oil, April crude oil and E-signal continious.
Again for me there is some debate about the pivot to use for P0 in the ML set and i am only able to plot reaction lines in MetaTrader. The bottom line here is that either will do but only the more recent SH gives a half decent reaction line. We are on the LMLP in both the June and cont. chart and price certainly looks oversold from the indicators. Overall i remain very bearish as per my last weeks-worth of posts on this blog but if price holds on this LMLP then i would expect to see short term rally/profit taking perhaps upto the centre line around $84.00 on the June contract.

Euro$ Monday 19th April ...Reaction Lines

A 240min and 60 min EurUsd chart with various ML/pitchforks and in crimson red the reaction lines. In the 60 min chart you can see how price has been heavily influenced by them. We now approach various LMLP's and CL's. The yellow dotted ML set is dubious and as yet 'P0' is not yet confirmed as a more suitable pivot lies behind it but it's 'fit' with price doesn't work quite as well. Too early as yet to be looking to take a long position but we could be near.

The Weekend

The world is a duller place for the recent death of Malcolm Mclaren from cancer. Manager of the Sex Pistols, joint owner of the 70s fashion shop 'SEX' in Worlds End, New Kings Road London and music producer and general weirdo extraordinaire.Heres a bit of his best
work in my opinion







Enjoy.............http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDcg7poOZhc







Have a great weekend!

The Beginning of the End : Part 2

Carrying on from my post earlier this week (12 April) the June E-mini S&P has taken a dive. My Schiff ML set in deep blue shows that price has found support on the first reaction line and the reaction line in the red ML set may have been partly responsible for resistance to price going higher. I for one am relieved. I have been watching for days as regular divergence in CCI, RSI and Macd & stochs... all in multiple TF's increased & confounded me... and the market still went higher and then rose though the long term Aqua blue upper ML parallel. I do not usually trade the emini S&P in part due to a hard lesson learnt last Autumn trying to pick the top of this market (there wasnt one!). I have learnt and grown as a result and leave this market to others who seem to trade nothing else but am pleased that at least the old saying is true............"What goes up, must come down". It maybe a restest on the red LMLP would be a good trade but how far down will we go..23.6% Fib RT gives 1170 & 38.2%= 1145 and is this a correction or a change in trend or a possible rout!

Re previous Crude Oil Trade: Bollinger Bands as a confirmation tool

I thought i would explain what i meant this morning when i said in the posting " Use Bollinger Band for confirmation for trade entry".

Firstly let me say that i make and offer no apologies for the way i draw Median Lines and use indicators and some would say that the Mauve/Magenta Median Line /pitchfork i drew on the oil chart was bollocks and incorrect re the laws of Alan Andrews. I would say that i draw these ML's in low time frames (before any new swing low/high would normally warrant them being drawn) as a way of finding support/resistance and market direction. If you go back into yesterdays posts( May Crude Oil) and look at the mauve magenta dotted ML/pitchfork it seemed pretty obvious that price was going lower but still we had a new SL at 84.65 and price started to move sideways or what is sometimes called 'walk the line'. The LMLP was in effect a trend line on which price found support. Price made no attempt to reach the centre line so the obvious conclusion to drawn is that price was either going lower or would continue to 'walk the line' and then rally to the centre line and either succeed or fail. Remember that i use multiple ML's/pitchforks in multiple time frames and correlate price behavior between them. As per my posts yesterday i was bearish and suggested that if price fell through the LMLP then a retest ( rather than a sell on stop entry) would be a better opportunity to sell and get short with higher probability. Price then fell through the mauve/magenta LMLP and came back to retest the line.

in 5,15 & 30 min charts above you can see price retouch and its location relevant to the Bolly Bands. They work well (for me especially in a sideways non trending market) as one of a dozen confirmation indicators i use in my trading toolbox/my style and the results can be seen above.

In the 5min chart price moves sideways with a contracting band/ squeeze and price pops its head just above the B-band.. bang on the LMLP. Again this is re-confirmed by the 15 & 30 min charts but in these price only makes it to the centre of the bands and then drops away sharply.

I am not a expert by any means on Billinger Bands but use them (when suitable) in conjunction with ML's/pitchforks as a confirmation tool with good results.

Beautiful! Crude Oil ( CL#K, CL#M & CL#F)

3 x Charts, May 10 , June 10 and continuous. position:Both short positions from yesterday at 86.00 and 86.04 closed out with a profit at the green centre line at 83.35
June 10: Sold at the MPL which coincided with the magenta LMLP in the May chart. ie the retest i mentioned this morning. Stop 23 pips above at the upper MPL at 86.26. This market is going lower but i would look to add extra position at a re-test of the June red LMLP if it got that high before the short covering rally which may see a rebound next week to 86.00 before further we see weakness and downward movement.
For tonight.... it is probable that we will take out the previous swing low at 83.75

CL #K Friday 16 April- update

11.35AM Euro time. Oil should be going lower today. Objective the blue CL then the white dotted LMLP and today possibly the green CL around the 83.15$ level......however from my experience with the Oil mkt, its sure to be a whipsaw move and not a sedate drop. There are plenty of entry points along the way. The mauve/magenta LMLP which is where we are nearly at right now. Price has failed to get to the CL and if this still holds and it breaks the LMLP then a re-test of this line will provide an entry point using B Bands in 5,15 & 30 min TF's. Before the US open i will take my B/E stops and move them down to 85.55 area just a few ticks above the green UMLP.

CL#K Crude update

Crude Oil ( May 10) Going Lower

Euro $

Long Euro on the restest of the reaction line

Update 5.45PM

The result below! Stopped out, but fortunately at break even after moving up the stop to B/E when the poke bar was confirmed by another higher close bar at 1.3575. Incidentally price stopped bang on the first inner quartile above the centre line. The Crude Oil( May) position goes well with price taking out the recent SL at 85.50$

Crude Short & Euro update

Short Crude Oil (May 2010) @ 86.00 & 86.04 with 15 pt stop. We are on the UMLP of a long term downsloping ML set having already made a recent swing low at 82.49. Techs/indicators to follow.