€$ & USDX...continued....continued

USDX


OK, here we are on €$ hovering around the 1.3800 and from the European session further upward movement seems very limited. 'Price' did give it's best shot as the Euro/London Interbank market opened this morning and i held my breath for about 10 mins as we went rapidly upwards with nice bars but stalled in the mid 1.3920's. Since then we have traded a range with price oscillating between 1.3740-1.3800....For me the bottom line here is that the USDX still has to convincingly break the blue up-sloping CL ( look at the discrepancy between the 60min & 5min chart re the CL touch) but more to the point there is no clean up sloping fork that can reasonably & cleanly express price action in the Euro$ charts plus any up sloping fork you draw in 5 min TF and above has an obvious CL failure...so my 'take' is that we must make a new s-low and everything now points to that. Have a look firstly at these simple forks in E-signal charts for the DX and Euro$. In the Euro$ chart , from my experience the current swing low formation simply doesn't 'cut it' as a viable SL. It's too congested and have a look at previous €$ swing lows- very rarely do we get such a formation . I have seen many of these and i believe there is a high probability of price going lower...This doesn't mean i have a trade-cos i do not but maybe a break under 1.3750 would entice me to look again. I suggest that we should look to see the recent late October swing low of 1.3732 and perhaps test the 1.3696 ( ie 1.37 figure) swing low of 20 Oct. Is this a retracement of a reversal? I am still not sure but am begining to see the odds stack up in favour of a full blown US$ reversal and if you look at the pasting the US$ has taken on the daily DX charts we should at least look for a RT of 38.2-50% from the recent move down from 82.00-83.00 range and perhaps from the high 80.00's
€$