Tuesday, 11 November 2014

Crude oil..cont

Nice sell off and optimum short entry where two ML's sit/share the same down sloping axis plus two horizontal CL's ( green and blue) have been pierced.

Multiple historical pitchforks and reaction lines may seem like the ultimate in multi tasking but the truth is that one single pitchfork ( Andrews or other ML types) cannot express all the pivots, waves and their fractals. Price is purely an expression of past price action.Historical pitchforks from higher time frames such as the daily ,weekly and monthly form the matrix that we perceive as past and future price action and more importantly offer the trader organic support and resistance levels for trade entries. Here's and example above in the two lower charts of CLZ14. Pitchfork A-B-C encompasses three profoundly important pivots. Now, regardless of the argument as to if this fork (and its reaction lines) should be drawn it still offers the frequency of pivots A,B&C as can be seen by the recent touch on the lower median line parallel. Look below: You can see that it offers a horizontal ( in this time frame) supporting level where energy from the recent move lower is expended as a bounce. Also look at the way two other median lines have channelled price along.  The fork ABC has not had a cl touch. The trend continues lower for CL and 75.65 beckons
 ( Dec14) but do we see a bounce first and there are some very considerable trends and moves lower taking place in many other commodity futures.

Friday, 7 November 2014

Crude Oil continued plus DAX...the acid test for price

The dax has rejected this forks centre median line yesterday but maybe it's coming back for a second attempt? Either way we will get an indication of future price direction from todays coming NFP data.

but let's not forget the bigger picture and another large historical andrews pitchfork :

Crude oil:
We closed our long positon as per yesterdays post at 78.04 as indicated. It appears price has accelerated through the downsloping reaction and median lines but this cannot be guarenteed eyt and we may still see a failure here. I expect price to return to the centre line shown below of the horizontal pitchfork around 79.23 but we may touch back to the low 78.20's first. Both reaction line templates shown below:

Thursday, 6 November 2014

Historical Median Lines and their Reaction lines reveal price action in Crude Oil

Now lets look at those supporting ( up sloping reaction lines always drawn in broken and dashed brick red.
Can you see the downsloping line and how price was buffered by it? Can you see the .618 Fib retracement level? We are not lloking for a reversal but expect some supporting reaction before price either goes lower or rallies/drifts higher but expect to revisit the brown ML again around 78.30 so are long 1 Dec ( 2 x .5) at 77.48 and 77.49 with our stop below the right hand inverted shoulder at 77.33

here's a more recent screen shot using two almost identical templates. The lines i have drawn manually over the reaction lines in different time frames as they move

Wednesday, 5 November 2014

Extraordinary times and extraordinary trends




Dollar Index

Light Crude
Orange Juice

OJ before the LMLP
DAX ( Andrews D/S PF)
DAX (FNL Pitchfork)...making sense from chaos