Wednesday, 30 June 2010

€$...It ends least for today

€$........continued..further update

Even though this is a convincing double top i would not write off further upside price action. The Stochastics along certainly point to higher levels and the Ensign 100 range bar chart looks encouraging.
UPDATE+chart (Below)1830hrs

The fact is not lost on me that we have stopped bang on the Fib 61.8% retracement level. This maybe it least for today and then price will either go back down to the 1.2150 level to have another crack at going lower through the LMLP or of course we may have a small sell off before price goes higher either in Asia tonight or more likely the London AM session tomorrow.

€$ are we back in biz on the upside etc......continued

Two views on MT platform on 5 & 15 min charts showing the automatically drawn reaction lines which have both supported and resisted price action over the last 24 hrs. The custom MQ4 indicator which includes RL, sliding parallels, trigger lines, Fib inner lines etc is available free of charge as a file on request. I have slightly edited the code to 'tweek' various features that i use.
Price action seems to have more momentum on the upside to give yet and we have seen a nice FIB RT of 76.4% and now are again heading higher and i think we will see a
new swing high formed before the day's trading session is out.

€$ are we back in business on the upside?

Too early to say but this is encouraging price action but what happens now is crucial...we need higher lows and higher highs over the next day. If we can take out the previous SH from last Friday at 1.2390 level then we will be back towards the previous failed CL having held on its LMLP yesterday(orange fork below).

Tuesday, 29 June 2010

€$...heres the short

Confirmed in 100 range bar chart .see previous postin g about RL break on downside

€$ interim result

Stop to B/E. Price has run into the overhead resistance of the RL shown in MT.I think there is more upside still but if price falls further & holds on at the supporting RL then i would move my stop up to that future pivot/minor SL. If it goes through (in more than one TF) and then i would close my long position with a small profit and sell a retouch of the broken RL.

€$..heres a HP long trade entry @1.2151

These sceen shots are all taken in the last few mins and show price right now in different TF's.
We are bang on the failed ML LMLP (see earlier post) and have support of the red RL. Long with an objective of 1.2200 with a tiny 5 pip stop at 1.2150 offered.


This doesnt look good to me and after the upside price action on Friday i was almost optomistic that we would have a second attempt to get to the centre line but there was no follow through and the upside seems such an effort and now only a brave man (and maybe a fool as well) would attempt to pick a bottom for the euro. This ML set in the 240 min chart is critical and in my post of 18 June i circled the target area
If you now take the whole $ picture against the other major pairs it is even more worrying as $ CHF looks oversold....where does this leave the euro? Well for me there doesnt seem much except the downside but even if we see short covering rallies i will stay away/flat for the moment and take the time to look and re-evaluate other pairs and the $ index.

Saturday, 26 June 2010

€$...reflection on yesterdays price action plus 'The Reverse Count'

Here are two charts showing the various closing prices of Friday price action. As per yesterdays posts that followed the breakout using reaction lines we can see that price is now finding resistance from the overhead RL which can clearly be seen in the Ensign 60 min chart. The MT 1 min chart is such a low TF that the same RL appears as almost horizontally overhead.
Now the question must be asked where do we go from here...especially as we have not touched the CL? Also could anyone have predicted the nasty spike down to 1.2353 just before the breakout which dipped below the LMLP...i guess alot of folks would have been stopped out by that unexpected move

Here is a print out of the Ensign 60min Euro$ showing recent price action upto the close at 9 or 10 pm Friday evening Paris time ( 8 or 9 pm BST ). I have been reading John Crane Reverse Count Theory in his book " Advanced Swing Trading"...available free(RRP $50!!!!!) on this link HERE. The rules for the count are slightly complicated but in brief you find your BC ( P1-P2) line and count back to the highest closing bar of the previous swing high starting the bar before B/P1. The you count forward from the lowest bar of C/P2 ( starting the next bar) to give you the next low Fridays case the reverse count was 39 and going forward this took us to spot on the nasty low spike i was refering to in the first paragraph and i guess you could count back/forward to the swing low pivot of A/P0 to give a target bar ....Food for thought and a powerful tool to use in combination with the other tools in your trading tool box! Happy reading.

Friday, 25 June 2010

€$ she goes........continued

Maybe i should have called this post "Here she blows".......We are truely on the way up and my belief that this € market still had more potential on the upside seems vindicated. I suggest we are heading towards the shaded area on the UMLP ( top right). This is a major and easy to draw down sloping fork from the most obvious daily/240min pivots (prices are approx P0 is 1.2321 on 3 June -but any of these high pivots as P0 give the same result, then 1.1875 on 7 June and finally 1.2465 on 21/6 last Sunday evening i think) and we never reached the centre line.

€$ she goes........

This can now be called a breakout in both 1, 5, 15 and 30 min TF and we are going higher and have the support of this RL now under price( expect a retouch)

€$..screen and time frame resolution problems

Although price appears to have pierced the lower RL great care must be taken as in a higher TF such as the 60 min price has held on the lower RL ( see inset) but as you can see it appears that price has already closed one bar/candle above the upper RL. You need confirmation in more than one TF and usually one low such as 5 or 10 mins and one 30 or 60 mins...i learned this the hard way buying a supposed breakout only to find price was still being contained.
It sure now looks as though we are going higher as we have made a higher low and are nudging the upper down sloping RL yet again.

€$..the battle continues................continued

This is a bit like watching paint dry!!! I suspect it will blow through on the upside shortly as price seems attracted to the upper d/sloping RL although it can't go on much longer

€$..the battle continues

€$ ...continued Friday 25th June midday

For the moment price seems to have found support just above 1.2250......I suggest that price will be channelled along into the pocket of these two dominant reaction lines for a breakout either way. I still have some hope for the upside but nothing would surprise me and i would only buy a convincing breakout of the downsloping RL if price goes on to make new highs and take out
1.2390/1.2400 level.

€$...the fight of the RL's

The market has dropped sharply this morning after encountering overhead resistance from a RL here shown in dark red. It also was the juncture of two upper median line parallels. I have shown the 15 min and the 240 minute chart as underneath price is support form a long term RL which has supported price action right from the begining of this upward movement back in early June. If this RL holds then all is still in place for more upside but if it fails then personally i will doubt if price action can make new highs.....Friday will decide all with US economic news providing the impetus.

Thursday, 24 June 2010

€$.......Reaction Line support

The yellow ML set/Fork is a Schiff ( P0 being vertically just above on the high pivot) and one of many ML's & RL's that influence price at any given time.

€$.......and you thought it was all over?

Price failures and various forks (many undrawn here) support both bearish and bullish views. On the plus side we still have a higher low and have taken out a previous higher high and found support on the RL that started the whole thing back in early June. If price does not break below the crucial 1.2200 level then we should test previous highs next week but we have today and tomorrow and a whole lot of US economic news ( 1st Q GDP) to come.
In the last bottom RHS Metatrader 15min chart we see a retracement of bang-on 61.8% and now price action goes higher.

Tuesday, 22 June 2010