Wednesday, 25 September 2013

E mini S & P: Are sellers in control of this market? + US Dollar index approaches critical support

USDX: This is a reaction line study using historical non- Andrews PF's ("FNL" pitchforks) in weekly and monthly TF's. The actual forks are not visible here except for their RL's. The lines are drawn at specific intervals and represent warning + reaction lines from pitchforks drawn off three or more different sets of pivots some of which share the same P0 & P2 but not P1. They have captured the frequency. Here is a link to a previous post on this blog about USDX using the same charts

These two charts are identical but in LOG scale

and in arithmetic scale again below:


Are sellers in control of this market? All recent attempts to rally have petered out like a damp firework and have been accompanied by  low volume. We failed yesterday at 1700 after a promising move higher. 1685 represents a horizontal ML location and if we break lower there are at least 10 big point before i can see any structure which lies around 1680. My own view is that we could see support here (1689 ES Z13) which represents a .382 Fib RT of the move since e/o Aug and on the emini Dow a .50 Fib RT

 Watch the reaction line currently in play below in the emini Dow around 15290.. a break off the forks LMLP and up thru the RL could indicate a e/o week rally or conversely further weakness. For ES It looks probable that price will retest 1700
Below is the horizontal support in ES showing the big fork plus the detail of price distribution around its UMLP in lower time 60 min frame.

Tuesday, 24 September 2013

E mini S & P...anatomy of a low pivot

Remember you saw it here first......Long entry? My point is that this technique reveals entry levels and natural stop levels and shows you more of the price matrix than any other TA. For a 5 min explanation of these lines watch video

UPDATE: Here is the outcome below. It just proves my view that 1. Price can never be second guessed. 2. Whatever seems improbable is possible and more often than not...more probable.The classic level for any stop would have to be below the grey horizontal ML + with a small margin for bad luck depending on how deep your pockets are and the overall trade plan plus trade objective etc... This lower low is called "Sod's Law" when you get stopped out but have made the right call but happens to us all at various times.
What we have seen here we can only explain by using these three lines although they represent a fraction of the structure they are enough to deduce with clarity that.....
1. Price has found support on the grey historic horizontal ML.
2. Price failed on it's first attempt to break out above the downsloping reaction line.
3. Price fell and was supported by both the grey ML and the uplsoping reaction line and perhaps some structure unseen here in this study which then propelled price up higher to make a higher high and back towards 1700 (ESZ13) BUT not before making a lower low!
This wedge pattern with a combo of RL's and ML's is a listed trade setup in our combo retracment

and another view of the same template ( different to above) seen this morning in the video.

Monday, 23 September 2013

Video: E mini S & P reaction line analysis

We are looking at a possible test of 1690-1695 and a filling of last weeks gap. Support at 1695 from a horizontal supporting ML (see below) may well provide an important "tell" as to coming market direction .
The probability of  a serious retracement grows as this month draws on but we suspect any major topping out pattern to evolve slowly with one or more major formations above 1700.  Serious support lies at 1695, then 1687 and 1671

Thursday, 19 September 2013

Emini S &P & $JPY....Video with reaction line analysis

USDJPY looks set to rally: Note the down sloping black "gap" fork used and the reaction lines from it...draw it yourself and be amazed!!

I hope this chart below is simple enough to show the CL destination. My horizontal lies at 99.27 which would be a very shallow RT of less than .236 but expect some bounce there even if we break lower.

ES, Emini S & P

Tuesday, 17 September 2013

Friday, 6 September 2013

E min i S & P........ Beware of a possible pitchfork centre line failure. Is this a warning?

Ouch!!.. It was so nearly there!. Will we see a 100% retracement to 1663?  This now looks like a possible failure but of course we could still make it......

Tuesday, 3 September 2013

Emini S&P..continued

Still seeing resistance from at least two important Reaction Lines. Remember that the distribuition around a line is rarely perfect and you can see the effect of long term/high time frame RL's above. The current centre line objective from the black upsloping fork lies today at 1655.
Note the change in location of the red reaction line in the 30 min chart. These lines are drawn using the MT4 automatic custom pitchfork indicator and thus cannot be moved but you must understand the subject of line location to know where the "reaction" effect (support/resistance) will be seen.

Monday, 2 September 2013

E mini S &P... It's September at last

 This is a continuation of charts from the last few weeks showing ES U13. All eyes have been on the downsloping black PF. After the horrendous mixed political messages concerning Syria coming out of first the UK and then the US I am not surprised the ES gapped up on Sunday night on the far east opening. We are almost past the point of no return for price to still be playing actively in the black fork. Frankly i can't see the downside opening up unless we "gap" down there ( which is of course possible on more news... but unlikely) and we saw on Friday a fierce price battle pre/after  Biden's speech(!) at the 1623-33 area with two failed sell-off attempts. The market maybe living in a day dream but unless we fail at 1650 we will be on the black (or green in the MT4 charts) UMLP of the downsloping fork at the 1660 area. That may produce a small retracment but it all points to another pop up to restest 1700. This all seems crazy to me as this market never knows when to take a rest and consolidate and any dip seems to be viewed with a perpetual optimistic eye that buyers just can't seem to resist just as it looks like "the end is neigh".I think its called serious support. We cannot argue that this has not supported price well so far in the second half of 2013 and the fundamentals have helped and regarding the black fork we simply are not making any progress lower. When any serious move down comes ( as it must) it could be carnage but until then it looks like we may have another attempt at first 1650 then 1662 but i have to remind myself that gaps must and will be filled but I long since gave up trading gaps and gently remind the reader that we have still to fill the late Dec 2012/early Jan 2013 "Gap" at 1411-1438(ish). Only a sell off this week and a break below 1623 will keep the black fork in play and market sentiment ( however fickle it maybe) points in the other direction - higher.