Monday, 2 September 2013

E mini S &P... It's September at last

 This is a continuation of charts from the last few weeks showing ES U13. All eyes have been on the downsloping black PF. After the horrendous mixed political messages concerning Syria coming out of first the UK and then the US I am not surprised the ES gapped up on Sunday night on the far east opening. We are almost past the point of no return for price to still be playing actively in the black fork. Frankly i can't see the downside opening up unless we "gap" down there ( which is of course possible on more news... but unlikely) and we saw on Friday a fierce price battle pre/after  Biden's speech(!) at the 1623-33 area with two failed sell-off attempts. The market maybe living in a day dream but unless we fail at 1650 we will be on the black (or green in the MT4 charts) UMLP of the downsloping fork at the 1660 area. That may produce a small retracment but it all points to another pop up to restest 1700. This all seems crazy to me as this market never knows when to take a rest and consolidate and any dip seems to be viewed with a perpetual optimistic eye that buyers just can't seem to resist just as it looks like "the end is neigh".I think its called serious support. We cannot argue that this has not supported price well so far in the second half of 2013 and the fundamentals have helped and regarding the black fork we simply are not making any progress lower. When any serious move down comes ( as it must) it could be carnage but until then it looks like we may have another attempt at first 1650 then 1662 but i have to remind myself that gaps must and will be filled but I long since gave up trading gaps and gently remind the reader that we have still to fill the late Dec 2012/early Jan 2013 "Gap" at 1411-1438(ish). Only a sell off this week and a break below 1623 will keep the black fork in play and market sentiment ( however fickle it maybe) points in the other direction - higher.


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