This doesnt look good to me and after the upside price action on Friday i was almost optomistic that we would have a second attempt to get to the centre line but there was no follow through and the upside seems such an effort and now only a brave man (and maybe a fool as well) would attempt to pick a bottom for the euro. This ML set in the 240 min chart is critical and in my post of 18 June i circled the target area
If you now take the whole $ picture against the other major pairs it is even more worrying as $ CHF looks oversold....where does this leave the euro? Well for me there doesnt seem much except the downside but even if we see short covering rallies i will stay away/flat for the moment and take the time to look and re-evaluate other pairs and the $ index.
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