Sunday, 28 November 2010

USDX and EURUSD & the Russell

Here is the Mini Russell. This looks bullish and i have heard many commentators talking about continuing this equity cycle upwards until summer next year. Price has come back for another second test of the black UMLP. We know from the green fork where price never made it to the CL that price has alot of upwards energy.It held at the 5850 level on the blue horizontal fork. There is however the possibility of a double top here or at least a pull back as we have both RL's from the blue and black forks shown resisting price at current and higher levels. I have extended the RL from the black fork ( shown as feint pink line) as it is my experience that these work as well as any RL's regardless whether price is in or out of the fork. I somehow doubt that double tops are the way forward simply from current price action but you never know. Incidentally the UMLP of the green fork is at the area of the RL from the black fork. From watching price over the years it is almost a certainty that price will take out the Green UMLP of any fork where there is no touch on the CL ( Hagopian's Law) but it may not do it on the first attempt.
RUSSELL 2000 Mini






Here is the USDX following on from my recent reaction line work and reverse/forward count. The US$ under current fundamentals seems likely to go higher and technically looking at the pattern in the day chart should/could get up to test some of the median and reaction line above it. Next major resistance level is the black CL (of the almost horizontal fork) of which its reaction line is clearly seen to have put the breaks on price and we are now ascending behind it on our back way up plus we have (just above current price levels) the also black UMLP of the fork shown . I would look/am looking to take another long position but not at these levels. I would want to see a shallow Fib RT from any of the resisting UMLP's that are congesting the area above price but this trend is strong and we may simply see price carry through to the 81.00 -81.50 level. Mindful of the current divergence showing in MACD and RSI and where we are in the Euro saga i would have to pass up any long trade entry at these levels for the moment. As for a short position it remains to be seen how price will react when it touches the upsloping reaction line (marked on chart RL) but at some point with the current trend these two will meet probably
at the 82.00 area
USDX
















EURO USD
Here is the €$. I am conscious of the fact that we are at the trigger line ( shown in pink/magenta) of the big black fork.How will price react. If it gos through the trigger line it could drop like a stone heading towards the blue and black down sloping CL's. Again you can also see the RL from this black fork that has dominated price at caused the failure to go higher than the 1.4280 area where price touched the RL. I would look to sell any rallies but think we could go down to the 1.2500 area quicker than we came from 1.18 to 1.43
EURUSD

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