Tuesday, 30 November 2010

Euro$ & the DX











We have reached a critical level. The blue horizontal CL. This fork also provided the reaction line that broke the USD fall and it is in my opinion this RL that carries price higher. Now we are at this CL and also the pink UMLP from the pink mod Schiff fork and the black UMLP( in the daily chart these colours apply) PLUS we have €$ holding after the test of 1.300...I now favour the upside for a correction which could be substantial ie maybe a few hundred BPTS and 1.3100.
I know the market will try to push the Euro but there could easily be a short squeeze triggered by a piece of fundamental news. At the very least we will see (and are seeing as i write this €$ just under 1.3050) a RT. At some point it will be a sell but only watching this pair closely will the correct level be apparent -it may be a repeated median line or a reaction line price failure but we will then see it back to test these lows. Of course i keep a careful eye on the DX as this tells me where price is going as my Euro$ chart has very few reaction/warning lines and very few forks in any decent time frame of use (30,60, 240 mins). If the DX comes back for a second attempt at 81.50 & goes through with speed then we know that we are on our way down to the euro basement and the mid 1.20's

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