US $ (usdx) - what's going on? Where from here? A re evaluation and further thoughts on future direction

For the last week i have been completely baffled by price. Originally i had worked out a reasonable theory about the USDX reversing at an important RL on my chart. Then it seemed that the Euro was on steroids and we saw some manic upwards price action last week after the Feds announcement. I then resigned myself to seeing higher Euro levels and a lower US$.....Now i am not sure either way. It matters little to me if the $ falls or rises but what does matter is to be confident about the overall trend direction so i can position myself accordingly but as Interbank FX dealers back in the 80's used to say.."Those who pick bottoms get dirty fingers" & " The bottom 10% & the top 10% of any market move are the most dangerous". This is certainly true for me.
Last Friday 5th Nov we saw a dramatic fall for the €$ and we closed pretty much on the lows & an important LMLP. Then i started to consider what options we have for the USD & in particular the €$. As i see it we have two options.
1. The US$ is going lower and we can expect to see € trading in a range 1.39-1.45
2. This is the US$ low and we are in a critical reversal period and have already seen € highs at just under 1.43.
In the two E-signal €$ charts below we can see that in the daily chart price has touched the thick blue centre line. Often when price reaches any CL in any TF it goes straight through and usually returns to retouch the line but often it reverses sharply. This is the case with the Euro $ but if you look at the 60 min chart we are now poised to break the previous swing low at 1.4022 and i suggest that we now have a very high probability of doing this and touching the red CL at 1.3950 or indeed possibly the lower light grey CL down at 1.3850. Any failure to reach the red CL would indicate to me that price is going back up to have a second pop at the previous high on the thick blue CL.

Simple? No because have a look at the USDX below

The USDX is still in a struggle with the reaction line that i have posted about since September and it looks as though price will attempt to get upto the sky blue CL/ dark blue down sloping UMLP. This would 'tie in' with the Euro USD charts downward projected levels.
If price gets up to the 77.50- 78.00 level then it is entirely possible that it takes out the previous high at 78.50 and if that happens the US$ will be 'back in business'. I will wait to see how this plays out over the coming days but until then i remain unconvinced for a higher Euro and also
worry how & if price action on the €$ will get through this reaction line and lastly look at the
daily Metatrader chart with the slow and fast stochastics....does this look like a market that is going higher- The fast stochastic ribbons certainly look like they have turned down as does the slow (35-10-1) B-line. As for the Maccy 'D' it shows a huge divergence...but as we all know indicators are unreliable but in this case they are giving me an uneasy feeling about further upside potential for the Euro.