Sunday 7 November 2010

EurGbp







This is a currency pair very close to my heart (& my wallet) not only because i am changing GBP into Euros every month but also because at some point i will sell my property here in France and return to the UK. So it is fair to say that this pair has a significant impact on my finances. I try to follow it closely but it can often be a right pig to trade and over the years have often found it too 'noisy' for intraday trades with tight stops/money management and now rarely trade it. However it is still important that i try to have a good understanding of price action/direction and offer my basic 'Andrews' evaluation here above/below.
The three E-signal charts are in descending order and the weekly shows the most important black modified Schiff ( P0 Nov 1995, P1 May 2000 & P2 May 2009) fork that price has bounced back up off the CL. Next it was the untouched CL in the down sloping red fork that alerted me to a possible trend reversal back in July/Aug. Price breaks out and rallies and hits the D-sloping blue mod Schiff fork UMLP last week before pulling back- but in that fork price also has not made it to the CL. You can only draw the conclusion that price must go higher and try to reach the green CL.
These E-Signal charts are pretty inaccurate at these sorts of large time frames and are shown here to illustrate simple conclusions drawn by me from basic Andrews theory. To really understand possible future price direction you need an additional tool/tools. Auto reaction lines drawn by a MQ4 custom Indicator in Metatrader is one i use. I transfer all obvious forks shown here in E- signal into a Metatrader daily/ weekly/monthly chart and then do the same (on a separate chart) for all forks in 60 min & 240 min chart and then another 2 charts 15 & 30min and then 1 & 5 min....you should end up with at least 4 separate charts. If you put all these forks on one chart it is impossible to see price which is obscured by endless lines but more importantly resolution and distortion occur for a daily chart with daily forks in a small time frame( see below the position of the upper RL in the MT 30 & 15 min charts). What you then get is an invaluable tool/ trading aid showing you long before price reaches a certain level the potential resistance/support/reversal points. Here below is such an example. In the MT daily chart not much really makes sense and it all looks pretty pointless but go down to 15 & 30 mins and hey presto! Now all you need is a trade setup and entry method....!

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