Wednesday 15 December 2010

€$ & USDX...What's going on?

OK, here are a mixed bag of charts of the USDX and Euro vs U$. It appears that the recent high just under 1.3500 was a touch on a centre line shown in the simple E-Signal chart as a black DS fork. I confess i was taken aback by the energy we saw in Mondays € rally and have not seen that sort of energy since before we peaked at 1.4280. But if you look at the E-Signal EURUSD chart you will see that price must make it to the magenta pink CL to remain in the 'game' and between the magenta pink CL and the current price lies the RL that runs right through the daily chart and caused the original resistance and failure & fall at 1.4280.
I feared several times over the last weeks that i had misjudged the USD and that maybe we are seeing a simple A-B-C correction in the USDX before a continuing descent.
I still hold fast on my 4+ month appraisal on the USDX reversal & that it will soon take out the 81.00 level but after nearly 3 goes it has retreated but so far we have seen good support at 79.00. The DX now battles with the downward sloping RL. However a third bash at 79.00 would have me running for the doors and i suspect we would send us significantly lower. 79.00 represent a .382 Fib RT from the 4th Nov low at 75.76 which is nice n shallow for continued upward movement. We seem to be stuck in a bit of a range 79.20-80.80 on the DX and good support on €$ under 1.3200...However even if we see €$ upto 1.3500 it still remains vunerable and the Eurozone fundamentals are simply shocking especially in the light of ever increasing positive data out of the US.
The bottom line is that i am flat and out of both these markets and will sit on my hands and watch price until i can see a more clearly defined trend.







































Laslty EURGBP following on from yesterday.....looking a bit over-stretched? I am not sure but there is a really nice bullish pattern in the 240 min chart with a wide double bottom (p0 & p2 in yesterdays chart) and we have seen a nice strong trend up from the .8350 area.

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