Tuesday 7 December 2010

USDX & €$

I am now having to ask myself some very serious questions about the continued strength of the Euro and more importantly the continued DX weakness. We have given up almost all yesterdays gains and are close to a 100% RT and now find ourselves back on/below the black CL. This does not bode well and should we fail to hold this level then there is very little support until 78.50-79.00 but more importantly it would change the whole dynamic of this recent up-move and we would have to ask ourselves is this simply a rather overblown A-B-C correction after the US$ fall from 90.00. Whats is the problem with holding USD's? Why is it getting such a hard time when you look at what other options there are?
Meanwhile €$ has failed on its first attempt at 1.3400 but worse than that (as far as the poor old USDX is concerned) is the lack of any downward direction towards the CL & price held at 1.3250 yesterday which is far too shallow a RT for confirming any bearish euro sentiment and we have now rallied above the new UMLP. As i write ahead of the US opening we are seeing no sign of Euro weakness. With no US data until much later i must confess that i am now worried & seeing current USDX at 79.20 ( now below the black CL) and am slightly lost as to future market direction. For me it looks like a test of 79. figure and 1.34 figure on €$ upside. On a brighter note there are several overhead reaction lines in Euro$ -slightly above the current market ( see bottom MT charts). But I certainly would not consider any long euro position or indeed any other position until the 'veil is lifted from my eyes' and i can finally make sense and see what on earth is going on here!




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