Tuesday, 18 February 2014

Equity Markets (DAX, SPX) continued: I will spell it out! Why this is the turning point and why you should look for a short entry.....Continued...continued

OK, we are at the point where we should expect a sharp break one way or the other and as you know we are in the bears camp ( still not flustered and still resolute about the conviction of a change in trend which will only change if we see a serious break towards 10000 in the DAX) . In the DAX we are back at the original centre line targets from the historical Andrews pitch forks ( see previous recent posts in this thread but below in green and black and blue and black underneath in 2nd study). Please note there are no arbitary drawn lines below all are either pitchforks or reaction lines are where i have drawn over lines as they appear in other time frames.
There is no doubt the market seems bullish and the recent eye watering series of daily bars and HH closes could lead one to reasonably expect a further break upwards especially when we look at last weeks weekly bar which is a real healer for the downside damage done recently. However - "Au contraire, Dr Watson" -as i said last week we are not yet short and do not want to be against this trend yet but this is the critical area to watch (DAX 9615 to 9700) and there is no rush "per se" ( or at least for today)....and just think about, all those greedy professionals - fund managers and the rest of the investment banking industry all rubbing their hands together in expectation of 2014 and beating their hands in approbation on the proverbial 'table' as they wait with growing expectation for the market to just keep going up.....after an already exceptional bull run of in excess of 5 years ( we could argue more years pre 2009) with fundamentals that were simply - to be polite -strange, yet now with the macro economics starting to make sense of recovery what should happen?? Well i ask you? The inverse to what is expected perhaps as markets are never rational & if this simply is the force of huge purchasing power of the industry at work driving us higher? Well if thats the case then there still must be a point at which we simply all wake up and realise the massive asset inflation that has taken place since Ben has been at the wheel and now ----all change- and a different era-Janet- yes, Dear Janet ... But seriously, how to spot a bull trap? When the whole world comes back to work in 2014 and thinks its biz as usual
But forgive my behaviour, please remember i am always impartial and as corruptible as anyone so back to whats important -the  trend( and i am not prejudiced either way- up or down (!). If this is a crucial turning level we will need to see a range established before going lower( a top must be formed in time/candles/bars) but the bulls remain in high spirits and could drive the ES to a new high but i suspect that the reaction line will hold it until snapping point at 9700 DAX and 1850 ES, and we will see it fall but its not going to be an easy ride and we are currently flat ( no position). I think we will see our nerves pulled to extremes..false break outs up and down like we saw 17 to 23 jan this yr.
The charts below show mostly the DAX and also the Spoos. They show the main two centre lines from the forks and also the down sloping reaction line form one of those mega forks.
Here are the basic charts ...see we have both mega forks in play plus the second reaction line from the blue PF a few weeks away and closing fast..perhaps that will be the reaction line to score?

and below are today's close ups  Also below to confuse you further ( sorry lack of time!) there are manually drawn lines that relate to the location of those aforementioned centre lines in other time frames ( see my article on line location or "mirror lines"). I am happy to send anyone a link to the daily video but we no longer post them freely due to time constraints but we offer free material to non trade enquiries .

Lastly: Email for free market report: Why you should buy Soybeans @1350-00 and sell ES at 1840.00 ( both ref today's post date date of 18th Feb 2014). New grains trend PDF available..............

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