Thursday, 13 February 2014

Equity Markets (DAX, SPX) continued: I will spell it out! Why this is the turning point and why you should look for a short entry.....Continued

I have deliberately left for posterity the previous post from late January and the thread about the process of topping out without a second instalment but feel the time is now right for preparing you for the next phase of this equity market move. Of course I do not have second sight and there remains a possibility of us moving higher but think this is highly improbable now we have reached the upsloping Centre line of all forks drawn off the recent low in all major indices i follow.. Now we wait to see if we build a second lower high here above the critical 1800 area on the ES before a move lower next week. The pace of the current rally is strong so if we make a new high all bet's are off and It's certainly not the time to take a short position with such feverish upside action yet but we need to watch price carefully to see if it stalls and struggles. Remembering we have a appointment with a gap on the DAX futures at 9300 area but will need to build a right hand side shoulder first ie a period of sideways movment on the DAX, DOW, Russell.
I stress again that I believe we have completed a cycle and that there is no more upside and we are merely in the process of starting our descent lower -even with an eye watering  rally as we have just seen which you can clearly see below the reaction line that is responsible. Please remember that what you see below in terms of reaction and median lines is but a mere fraction of what makes up the fabric or matrix that price moves through and i am by no means sure that we are to represent this matrix best by using bars, candles, tic, volume bars etc etc to our best ability but so far in searching for a 3rd dimension for charts or a third value for the Z axis (  X & Y time and price respectively) i have only given my brain a headache. However one thing is certain which is periodicity trumps all and is far more important than we give it credence for. This may sound obvious but in other words a median line or reaction line from the 60 min chart will overcome lower time frame structure and likewise it is blatantly obvious that a weekly or monthly reaction line will impose greater stress and pressure on price than any lower time frame reaction line from a 240 min or hourly or 10 min chart time frame. With 24hr trading surely the only really true interval is weekly?...perhaps at a stretch the daily time frame? I am unsure still about the most effective time frame but the higher we go the greater the advantage for future direction and trade entries that can be finessed in lower time frames. Hence an overriding conclusion we are headed down but using the low time frames to take the entries using standard ML and RL combo setups. Remember that if periodicity is critical then so is the angle of any reaction line which changes its angle as we change the time frame.

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