Wednesday, 27 February 2013

GBPUSD continued with 'gap fork' plus Emini S & P

I still suspect we maybe building a low pivot here if 1.5080 to 1.5100 holds. 1.5100 failed repeatedly to break this morning but we have also become range bound with the high 1.5180's proving too much. After dropping nearly 15 cents or 9% since Jan 2nd 2013- and for good fundamental reasons-the trend looks slightly tired. I make no case for a change of overall trend but the probability of a 3 or 4 cent bounce must be growing. My case hinges on structural historical median lines you can see cutting across the above chart in black and red plus the potential pattern you see there with the candles and the higher low today plus the multiple stochastic/MACD patterns + divergence plus the gap from Sun/Mon this week after the 'triple A' fiasco Friday evening- How much of this news/weak data + bearish sentiment is already discounted in the price?
I am certainly not long but a break towards and over this d/s blue fork would wet my appetite.
ES H13:  Trouble around the 1512 area and a retracement will be needed after today's sharp bounce but i suspect this market will spend a few weeks oscillating around this area before moving higher.

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