Monday, 11 February 2013

Emini S&P. Just how far can this go? 1600? or back to 1480?

The current market  and the Friday breakout upwards away from the recent range for me is a bit like when you drive so far one day and you can't find a map in the car that shows you where you are. I have 12 to 15 separate studies of ES H13 and not one of them has any resistance or overhead areas ie ML/RL's ( that can be trusted). In itself this is not a problem but there is a growing swell of respected professionals that seem to be concerned about how fast we have come and how quickly we have done it from a fundamental/macro point of view. This in itself is again no great worry but they do have a point. After all today is the 11th Feb and if you include the Fiscal 'lift' effect ie the gap up in early Jan we have come from 1411 to 1513 in 5 weeks.. that's over 100 big handles. Remember at some point we must retrace and fill that gap but I am not pouring cold water on this rally yet or "p#ssing on the parade" and our friends across the pond would say. The fact is that anyone who underestimates the strength of this (or any) equity trend can/will be crucified. The fact that we all can pull up a dozen or more indicators that show the market is oversold means nothing... its pure fluff. Lastly, i also do not underestimate the amount of cash waiting in the wings to support any decent retracement and that equities have become in fashion again as an asset class. I used to scoff at folks who said buy the dips but for the moment it remains an option unitl the warning signs appear.
This is price action ( below) around a reaction line from fork (AC/87W)
 Horizontal ML/RL's provide excellent supp/res
However... Who want to buy the ES H13 at 1513? Not me and the recent chart looks particularly vertical and the last leg up on Friday after Thursdays sell off is peppered with gaps ( all be it in the 1 min TF). Sooner or later the market will tell us it needs a well earned rest and retracement and far healthier it would be to see a RT back towards 1450-1480 before powering on up.

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