Monday, 18 February 2013

Emini S&P. pre-corrective behaviour grows during US mkt holiday

I feel it in my fingers
I feel it in my toes
The 'risk'  that's all around me
And so the feeling grows
This is that song that seemed to never go away some years back in the 1990's -it being a film soundtrack at that time. I have substituted the word 'Risk' for 'Love'. Immature behaviour on my part? Of course and no doubt my wife would say it is extremely childish, but I suspect that if I ever reach my golden years -70's or 80's she still say I am immature and childish then as she eventually slips/buries me into the ground. So why have I wasted a perfectly good paragraph on this? The reason is I spent most of Saturday,Sunday morning going through all my long term Equity index charts and creating new studies from scratch. Not just the usual suspects mini Dow, S&P, TF but also other US and European indices plus the VIX. This is not about gut feeling or any growing doubts I may have. Its simply about price behaviour and linear analysis and for the record I remain still bullish for Emini S&P and think we MAY have at least one more high to come. However we are in desperate need of a new low pivot and a retracement back to 1500.00. Last Thursday and Friday we saw a pattern of technical behaviour that I have seen before. Namely, wild and sharp swings(rally-then sharp decline) within a sideways pattern and framed by horizontal median line/pitchfork and reaction line organic structure. Please don't misunderstand me. I would like nothing more than to see a strong continuation of this trend and as i have mentioned before I rarely trade ES form the short side and I am not advocating a short-yet and I remain with all my long term positions- most from about the 1480's and 90s.
So whats changed?
1. momentum ( what i call trend momentum) has stalled.
2.Price has failed to reach the CL in 'local' simple Andrews forks that you can draw using Thursdays and Fridays bars/candles. This is not sideways consolidation behaviour either where forks drawn are often useless and you observe CL failure in both up and down sloping forks.
3. In several charts CAC40, Dax and cash SPX and DJII we are sandwiched between supporting ML's and resisting RL's. Heres the cash Dow and this crucial area is bang on 14000

 Heres belows the 60 min cash dow in arith scale
 Here below in log scale
 This above is just one of the anomalies I have found but even though the lines may be present in one chart and not another or in effect have more than one position they will still effect price depending on how they are viewed. If you are confused by the Log and Arith business here's the difference below in a simple fork with one click of the mouse to change from Arith to Log. Here's another link about this large subject: LINK , Link2
 To be continued. (ran out of time)

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