Monday, 19 December 2011

Gold, Copper and EURUSD.. The Christmas week ahead.

Following on from my possible 'Three peaks and a domed house' pattern ID in copper last week LINK and see chart below:

I have some more orthadox reaction line work on these current charts below

HG Copper ( Comex) 240 min log scale:

HG Copper 240 min arith scale:

Copper 60 min -One chart( right hand side) is Log scale the other arithmetic. The true location of the reaction lines is only revealed using/combining the reaction lines form both scales and i usually then view in arithmetic.

So we take a 15 min chart below & the combined locations are shown the supporting and resisting reaction lines form forks with a pivot value of over 75. This doesnt mean there are not many other reaction lines exerting influence over price but these here have the highest probability of a reversal such as seen here on Monday 19 Dec 4 PM Euro time. It maybe that price will pop up higher over 332.00 or even upto 335.00 where i will look for a short position should the setup arise. What is clear is that price is being chanelled into a narrowing band of RL's ie a pennant (bearish). The outlook remains bearish

It's too early to say what direction price will takewhen it breaks out but i favour the downside but the break out might not occur for another week ie after Xmas/New year.

EURUSD: AS with copper we are moving sideways but need a momentous push to get through the downsloping reaction lines seen here...however I note we are no longer making lower lows and are holding levels on/around the long term (very thick dark blue) ML. I have no trades open and none planned but if i did I might consider a long upto a restest of 1.3100 rather than a short- although i still favout the downside medium term and the outlook from my perspective remains very bearish.

A break above 1609 would be bullish ( short term) but with all three markets covered here moving in close correlation any move will be reflected in the other 2 markets. I will wait to see if any movement results in a new trend over the first 3 days of this week but again think that we may have to wait until 2012 for clarity but overall the outlook remains bearish.

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