Tuesday 13 December 2011

EurUsd . further weakness to come

The EurUsd appears still weak with my next set of targets being 1.3100 then 1.3085, 1.3060 and 1.3007. These are all reaction lines form HTF forks (with pivots values of over 80).
Strong support at 1.2960
Current upwards price action appears to be a retouch under a significant ML and the trigger line of the most recent daily fork. Simplified it looks like this.

1.3200 has also become a struggle to break above and all smaller time frame forks show failure.
US data due today could put a spanner in the works and a break above 1.3240 would raise the probability of price having a small cycle upwards perhaps reaching 1.3255 or even 1.3280. This would perhaps present an opportunity to sell into a failed rally.
The current centre line target is way up at just under 1.35! but this is highly improbable.
Here is more detail:



My personal view is we still need to continue the downside momentum in order for a true break lower into a new range reflecting the current fundamentals surrounding the euro and the uncertainty.
Now taking this one step further here is the Ensign verison of the top Esignal chart with the trigger line in salmon pink:

Now i add another fork called a 'GUY' fork ( i am not joking.... its my first name!)...the reason is that it uses the first pivot in a new trend. The fork A-B-C would have given Alan Andrews a heart attack!.....however look at the reaction lines. Perfect resistance and this fork works every time using the first pivot rather than the highest. This first pivot is very important and forks drawn off it will show the first line of resistance in the normal Andrews fork. The fact that it is the first HH is significant and the fact that there 3 other HH's after is not important. If you wish to see the first area of resistance after a change of trend use the first high as P1. The fact that it is the first HH pivot also means that the angle of the fork and its reaction lines will be softer or more shallow and of course the first reaction line that price will encounter in this new fork using the new low pivot of 'C'.This a great retrospective tool to use such as in this case.
Have a look:

and here in 60 min detail ..Look at the short trade setups off the yellow reaction line using the 2X B-line+ Bolly band system!


And because this Ensign template is not ideal visually for forks and reaction lines here it is in clean well scaled chart

Try it yourself!

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