Monday, 3 March 2014

Equity Markets continued.. DAX, ES, YM, TF,NQ, FTSE etc... where do we stand now? I have warned you for weeks continued

Well, we now have all the pieces of our topping out formation coming together albeit in a way that was exceptionally difficult to trade. There is in my opinion no where left to go on the upside for the DAX and my reasons are listed in the less than half a dozen posts since mid January. Of course I am impatient and have found the psychological aspect of trading the last 2 weeks difficult and yet like an apple waiting to ripen & drop from a tree... these things cannot be rushed and indeed we may see another third top formation which means a run up to Fridays levels again over the coming days and weeks especially as we now have a gap to close. Can you see the head and shoulder pattern in the daily DAX? Perrhaps this move down will see us close the older gap at 9300 where we have an important centre line objective before any move higher to redress last nights gap?

Firstly here's the big picture weekly and daily:

Now check out these ...and look at the reaction lines from the purple PF..
The black fork uses the first pivot in the series of sideways price action on 14th -19th Feb but it fits as does its reaction lines but strictly speaking its non andrews and what i call a " discretionary pitchfork".

OK, Just to explain whats going  and the sort of  pattern i have a past historical example from the CAC40 below
Here you can see the downsloping reaction line # 6 (all ML & RL's drawn by automatic MT4 PF indicator- free source). Price has reached its objective ML at 3 and made a higher high. Then a retracement followed by an approach ( inverted head and shoulders)and pass through the down sloping reaction line 6 plus a retouch and then a lower high at 4 followed by the sort of dance we just saw last week in the DAX & ES,YM etc with gaps and a tight range with support provided by a historical ML (2) then a second high at 5 before a sharp fall and a retest of  RL 6 plus another RL at 7. This is just an example to show  how price can pass through the RL before falling away back but look to see how many bars the whole process took to unwind. Heres the FTSE futures below which look particularly unhealthy.

and the emini Dow below showing last weeks run up to 16386

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