Thursday, 15 March 2012

EURUSD...I don't trust this move up

We all know price can do what it wants when it wants but some things are more probable than others. I never argue with price if i can avoid it....However(!) this doesnt look right to me. How any times have we seen a energy coils ( those tops i posted about earlier) and then a break out with real panache and energy and you do not see a retracement of nearly 50% so soon. As i am writing this price is now making a second top with a lower high and if i were a doctor i would say the patient is sick! This move up doesnt convince me one bit and if i were more reckless i would sell at the top of this range ( 1.3075 or better) with a 7pt stop but it certainly starts to look like a false breakout (look at the candles in the 30 min and 1 hour charts)............and it now looks highly probable that we are going back to touch the "line that keeps on giving" at 1.3050 1.3055 but we may make several more trips up and down first and of course there is the possibility that we could break out upwards but for the moment i am staying out of this type of behaviour and am flat.

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