Wednesday, 11 January 2012

EurGbp, Gold, EURUSD,CT and the rest ( if enough time)

Have a look at this simple chart of EURGBP

Below is a 30 m in chart showing action around the centre line and a Schiff fork( blue) off the pivots chosen. Below is the daily Ensign ( b-line template). There is divergence but no signal except the possibility of holding above the pink reaction line which will need a close above .8320.. if we fail we could still go lower but i have my eye on this pair in the coming weeks/months and this is in part of the worries I have over Pounds sterling. This is very vunerable in my opinion and shows great weakness technically at the moment and will sell any potential rally above 1.5400

Gold below has now got to break convincingly above 1650 and then 1690. Both these are critical. Draw some simple forks on a daily or 240 min chart and you see we have an ultimate target of 1750$. I still remain bearish overall but since this move has seen almost no retracement of any significance yet and still appears strong I am waiting to be convinced but price action is bullish at the moment but no one in their right mind would buy at these levels a whisker below 1650$ . I have not had time to look at potential resistance after 1650 and 1690 and we still have yet to get a leg up over this most important level (1650) and it could all go pear shaped still. I wait and watch. Remember using the multiple PF/RL method we found the absolute low a few weeks back.

Cotton is a buy but not at these levels a break over 97.50 9 March would be good or if we get down again to 93.50 but i believe this commodity has turned.
What about the EURUSD? Have we reached a level that reflects the true fundamental situation? I believe we have and would not go short here at 1.2680. If anything I am considering a long this week -depending on price behaviour.
Below is a chart with some long term ML's ( blue) and RL's in brick red that I am watching. There is little or no support under them. Also the Ensign chart clearly showing the market oversold.

Unable to post in depth due to time constraints this week.

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