Wednesday 27 October 2010

USDX & Euro$- Where from here?





















So, Whats going on now? What sort of move is this and of what magnitude? Is this a correction before the USD continues south or is this a key reversal. Personally i favour the latter and if you look at the E-signal 60 min chart of €$ i can see that the euro has had a good run since late Spring/summer but then had been relentlessly whipped all the way down from 1.50 this time last year and the recent high last week was just over the Fib .618% from 1.50 back to just under 1.20. Price had been trending strongly and hit all the long term centre lines at critical levels ( 1.40 €$ & 1.60 £$) and we have not seen a serious RT since August. I think we must make a lower low than 1.3700 in the forseable near future (next few days) and when you look at the poor old DX which has been really bashed i can't now see it falling below the reaction line it has put on such a great fight to get above. Also if you trade a market daily and watch the bar by bar action you get a feel for the atmosphere/character of a particular currency pair and price action seems still weak for the Euro. Often i look at the long term charts and try to continue the wave pattern as a single line with the same frequency and to me price looks as though we must at least go back to the low 1.30's and above 80.00 on the DX. Today the battle is for 1.38 figure and price plays out it's merry dance bouncing off it over 3 times already but seems intent on coming back as it has struggled to make it over my gold & mauve median lines at 1.3830 level and the last attempt ended as a double top. Now we are heading back down and it seems highly probable that we will test it and go lower before the end of the US session. I am going to post some reversal dates and also some long term reaction lines on daily charts and thereby have some idea of critical support levels where this may all end but as i write this am reminded that often the trend changes at this time of year and previous trends have lasted until Jan/Feb and even uptil late spring. Only a fool would look for a bottom so soon anyway and the only way to be in this market is short for the time being at least. Maybe the New Home Sales will provide the fundamentals to push the technical onwards and down.
PS: That massive bar in the DX is not an error and was a Sunday evening freak-out re: G20 hysterics.
PPS: in the small 1 min TF chart above you can see a RL running parallel with the LMLP- ideal

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