Wednesday 20 October 2010

US $ Index and $ outlook.

Here's the current USDX( bottom 2 charts) in 60 mins- with and without basic RL's ( added manually in E-Signal so not 100% accurate) and top left a 5 min chart. As per yesterday price rallied strongly and took out various UMLP's and hey presto we hit the long term RL that has guided price down since the beginning of this trend (after the consolidation sideways movement approx half way down the total move from 89.00 to today's level) in early Sept. The reaction has been a strong RT and you can also see that the high pivot was an area of confluence with the UMLP of the mauve and blue plus the approaching 2nd RL of the blue fork lay just ahead. I guess this was a high probablity level for a reversal. Anyway i am still bullish the USD and as i keep mentioning it is not unusual for price to react positively after passing through a RL as opposed to be effected on the side of the RL you would expect. Do not ask me why it does this as i have no idea but I have observed this many times and it is extremely common behavior. So this RT could be as sharp as a.618 Fib RT back to 77.70. Watch as we approach the LMLP of the mauve up sloping fork at the confluence of the blue CL where there is a upsloping RL form the mauve fork. This is just one possibility and there are scores of important RL's & forks from multiple TF's not shown below but i picked these in particular as i believe they are dominant and you can clearly see price affected by the reaction lines in both blue &;amp; mauve forks.Re the EurUsd( bottom chart) From here i would look to sell the euro$ if we fail to hit the mauve CL as we could go back down faster than we came up this morning. The DX may take more than one more attempt to get up through the RL so be
prepared for a bit of noise and volatility.










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