Friday 5 February 2010

Oil -Back (again) at the lower median line parallel!


Here we are 4pm Central Euro time/ 10am NY or EST. For those who watch these things a bearish candlestick formation but i am not convinced either way yet but lean to the bearish side although the RSI & MACD, Trix & others are inconclusive. My various Stoch studies seem to lean to the upside and one possible outcome is a rally and then another test on the downside but it looks vulnerable and could be a typical Friday crazy session.

One thing is for sure and that this could be a turning point if we do leave the upward sloping Magenta coloured ML set.
Now have a look at this....................


I have Mod Schiffed our down sloping Blue ML set to an even sharper angle and the upper MLP
defines the resistance of the bounce we saw of the old pink/magenta LM parallel at 78.00$. Not only does this mod schiff upper MLP intersect price at this level but also the upper 50% inner quartile line of the original ML set before we have applied the Mod Schiff to it...as it would do geometrically speaking ( i keep them all as there is a high prob that price will interact at these point but have only displayed the basics for the sake of clarity and have stripped out Fibs, Pivots and indicators also for clarity )
This gives me great cause for concern that we maybe on the way down albeit maybe after another test on the upside on that blue line. If price does not hold on this lower pink MLP then price could fall sharply back to the mid 60.00$
Now i am starting to put together some possible high probability trades either on a break or hold of the Lower MLP (also a Multi Pivot line) or retest of the down sloping blue upper MLP.

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