Wednesday 10 February 2010

Back to the USD and here USD YEN (composite)

Take a look at this weekly chart of very a long term ML going back to the early 1990's. Remember this is the inverse of what is normally traded on the forex interbank market. In other words $ per Yen rather than Yen per $ and this i what the way IMM and other futures market contracts are expressed and traded. So a rising market is a falling USD and Vice Versa and it is the direct opposite to the cash market chart. PS: You cannot get back this far in time on Metatrader to draw the ML's or i would have included some Metatrader charts.

The chart shows a very efficient ML set and LMLP over the last few years since the Japanese Economic asset Bubble crash/recovery which forms P1 & P2. Price has twice found support on the LMLP but never made it to the centre line until now ( Autumn/winter2009). Included on this chart is MACD with default settings showing a definite divergence. On it's own this is not much but price has touched the centre M-line and pulled back. If you have read the first and second posts of this blog you will know that i have more than a sneaking suspicion that we could see the US$ reverse or at least rally for a price cycle of 2-3 years and this was the original reason to start this Blog. I will present my evidence and

previous & current charts over the coming weeks but now back to the daily Yen chart number 2 above. One possible scenario i have been looking for is a retest of the upper MLP on this chart and then a change in direction 'down the other side of the hill'...in other words price may have peaked at the mega monthly ML. Whatever happens a possible corner trade awaits around the level of 0.01130-0.01135 which correlates to a low of 88.50- 88.10 in the cash FX chart. From my experience it is unlikely for another retest of the monthly/weekly centre ML.

No comments:

Post a Comment