Sunday 31 January 2010

Dollar Yen.....working my way up from Monthly to daily

Here are some long term $Yen charts( see posting of charts Feb 1st ). There are several reasons i am showing different time frames. Firstly long term (monthly & weekly & to some extent daily) median lines affect price as you will see. For me they are somewhat similar in essence to what in the UK are called 'Ancient Lay-Lines'. These invisible 'Lay Lines' lines (much vaunted by Druids and 'new age' folk) are supposed to contain energy and power and maps are produced of huge areas of the UK where these lines run and where they intersect. This is similar to Median Lines and if we are looking at say a 240 min or 60 min chart we should at least be aware of what lines run through the chart and could cause price to stop or reverse. This also goes for Fibonacci levels and Pivot points and also psychological levels of big significant round numbers. I am not sure if these longer term lines are dominant over shorter time frame lines but think that price cycles and movement are like the toy 'Russian Dolls'....one within another, within another or like the layers of an onion. So your Median Line drawn in a 30min or 60min time interval will be part of a bigger wave on a 240min (and median line) and that will be part of a bigger median line on a daily/weekly chart but all are affected by the dynamic of the wave and it's direction. Another reason for displaying these longer terms charts is to show that often many important swing highs and swing lows can be directly correlated to a median line or ML parallel in a higher timeframe where the line has provided support or resistance. At this point is should say that great care should be taken to be objective (not subjective) when drawing ML's as there are many that could/can be drawn and it is important to not to look for ML's that support your market view(if you have one). I am assuming that any reader here has basic understanding of this tool and the rules as per Mr Andrews and his works and the Action-Reaction course. The bottom line here is that bona-fide ML's work and price interacts with them and within them. Many ML's can be drawn that do not have any price interaction and should be discarded as they help little and some ML's i have drawn may have one or two price touches then become totally redundant. The two exceptions (for me) to this is to draw a ML that has no price 'touches' but where price either fails to reach the ML and then reverses. I use this as a trade confirmation tool but will normally have other active ML's on the same chart. (see crude oil chart above in seperate posting)
The other is the so called 'Discretionary' pitchfork or ML & this is a dangerous little thing where you can 'tweek' P0 or P1,P2 so the wave is perfectly captured in the ML.

This it is a good juncture to mention that often i find price data is distorted due to various reasons such as extended Market holidays (Xmas& NewYear see JapYen 2009/10) or contract expiration. Another reason to consider price tick charts?Perhaps... Another problem is that if i try to reproduce what appears to be a perfect ML in Metatrader in E-Signal it often does not fit as well or violates the ML or MLP to severely to be a viable ML or at the least, to be of any use.

My personal advice is to check your ML's in more than one charting package if possible. On this point there is no doubt that ENSIGN WINDOWS is the best and has great sophisticated options for your ML and E-Signal's pitchfork/Median line tool is the worst. The bottom line here is that all but Metatrader cost money but in my opinion it would be money well spent.

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