As Mary Poppins says......

'Lets start at the very beginning, its a very good place to start'




Below/above are some very long term charts either monthly/weekly showing possible Median lines and possible support. To start with lets look at $/CHF which is the most troublesome candidate for a $ reversal & then $Yen and the $Index(ICE) and then the other 'Big Boys'
Eur and Gbp and the Cad.


In the down sloping dominant and active ML (blue esignal/green Metatrader) 'Price' has found support in the (central) median line (as oposed to its upper & lower parallels) itself and has now found support on the lower MLParallel (pink in esignal and red in metatrader) at the area of confluence of both ML's. If price can hold and find support and has enough momentum to rise to the pink/red ML itself (which it must do for this 'fork' to be confirmed or price could fall sharply if it fails) then we maybe in business. I should at this point draw your attention to a very nice Double Bottom which although small and well formed on the weekly chart is a whopper (with a nice gradated curvature and 'Mirror' bisected by the price volatility of the 'Autumn/Winter 08 banking crisis) on the daily chart with a previous low of .96340 on March 17th 2008 and .99170 just this last November 26 2009. The most recent low being obviously higher and thus a viable potential bullish signal. Price has already started to move up-up and away . If you look at the very long term ML in say a weekly/monthly chart it could easily be said that price was held and supported by this lower MLP (Red-Metatrader & pink-Esignal) although there is some penetration of the lower MLP. Of course if you were to change the designation of P0 on the pink up sloping ML from the current low to the swing low of 1/10/98 @ 1.2734...then it fits perfectly
There are a lot of 'what-if's' here i know but i have only just started my 'pitch' and i suspect price has 'just started' as this cycle will/would take years!
First things first:
We will look at the basics first then market 'structure' then indicators/divergence and Fib levels, pivots,basic wave structure/count & smaller time frames (60&240min and daily) etc to build up my case...and then you can decide. 'Price' itself will ultimately decide if it takes out previous resistance levels and makes higher highs and if it eventually breaks out of the long term down sloping ML through into the ascending ML and then 'Hey Presto'...... we will have confirmation of the reversal. But in the meantime we will return to lower time frames which have greater trading application.
Next post more detail on $Swiss and more positive/exciting possibilities for $Yen. Plus a 'cracker' of a very recent Crude Oil 60min chart (CL #H09) plus another current chart showing price oscillating off multiple ML's& MLP's.
Remember... Each of these currency 'pairs' above may not put forward a high probability case for a change of direction for USD in the short/medium/long term, however if you take all the currency pairs( i intend to cover) and some of the currency indices and add a pinch of fundamental common sense then there is a strong case and could be a scenario well worth watching develop.