Gold, EurUsd & CL J12

Nice double tops here or part of a continuation pattern?At the time of posting it certainly looks weak but price can turn on a the head of a pin and if we make a HH then i suggest we will resest the high 1600's but what is more probable is for price to return to the blue horizontal ML at 1648/49$ ( below) but as this pattern stands right now it looks to 'neat' and tidy so there's nothing to do but watch.

I watch Crude but rarely trade it but have a look at the two charts below. Support off the ML and d/sloping reaction lines. This is one of two outcomes. If price holds on the ML then it should surge through and upwards or it will fail here. The fundamentals are slackening for crude but my opinion is that we may see a break either up or down.

Gold.... ( & Eur$)

From yesterday's post heres gold after last nights retouch... As always price does what it wants when it wants and it is never over until the 'Fat Lady sings'. Maybe we will not crash straight down and we may have another touch on the black LMLP. Perhaps we will break above it? I am bearish gold purely on the technical picture but we can see here that it has found support off the dotted reaction line ( which comes from the magenta/pink fork- see yesterday's daily chart).
I supect that price will encounter some resistance off the underside of the dashed red RL at 1661$ area plus there is the small fork in grey i have added which has already offered some structure with a touch on its UMLP. I am deliberately trying to keep this chart uncluttered and simple so price action is more visible.
The euro has surprised me and i was stopped out of a short trade mercifully before the CPI data came out. We have seen over 100 basis point rally and price is heading towards the new dark blue CL at 1.32 area but is now on the green down sloping UMLP. The long range bars suggest that there is more to come but i watch this level 1.3171 with interest.

Gold/EurUsd continued......

Following on from yesterdays posts ....Here's the Euro. I am not short yet but think price will pop upto the thick red reaction line at 1.3070 after hitting the historical ML at 1.3050-55 for another small cycle before it goes lower. If this happens (and its a big if) I will look for a short entry if all conditions/requirements are present.

Gold here is doing exactly what I thought was highly probable.. heres the detail of the retouch and form the chart posted yesterday.

Gold/EurUsd continued......

A classic piece of price action...retouch and/or "dead mans bounce" / "dead cat bounce"......and viz a viz EurUsd and the current tight correlation...we should see a mirror effect in both markets perhaps?

The man who- told them he thought Gold had further to fall!

With apologies to HM Bateman

Simple fork work here below:


and the more complicated picture below in 60 mins:

and 5 mins:

You can draw a perfect Andrews fork and watch for a failure at the CL which lies at about 1685-1690$.. I have my eyes on 1650 ( here) then 1661 to 1677 levels as well. All of these levels may present a short entry once confirmed . Until then i watch this recovery from the recent fall in horror as Gold's price correlation with the EURUSD pair has returned with a vengence....surely not a good sign.
1672$ level next to watch.

EURUSD...I don't trust this move up

We all know price can do what it wants when it wants but some things are more probable than others. I never argue with price if i can avoid it....However(!) this doesnt look right to me. How any times have we seen a energy coils ( those tops i posted about earlier) and then a break out with real panache and energy and you do not see a retracement of nearly 50% so soon. As i am writing this price is now making a second top with a lower high and if i were a doctor i would say the patient is sick! This move up doesnt convince me one bit and if i were more reckless i would sell at the top of this range ( 1.3075 or better) with a 7pt stop but it certainly starts to look like a false breakout (look at the candles in the 30 min and 1 hour charts)............and it now looks highly probable that we are going back to touch the "line that keeps on giving" at 1.3050 1.3055 but we may make several more trips up and down first and of course there is the possibility that we could break out upwards but for the moment i am staying out of this type of behaviour and am flat.

EURUSD 1 min: Triple/quadrouple tops......or continuation?

Looks like we are going higher but just in case i have a sell stop at 1.3044 ...Just pleased i was not mixed up in that. This is the same line as i posted about here
If we break up i expect to see 1.3080 quickly but afailure here along the downloping black ML will see us fall back to 1.3000 where there is also unfinsihed business.

EurUsd...1.3055 The line that keeps on giving!..continued

The Euro is going lower.. This is a failure and all we have seen is energy being expended but I will wait until London session tomorrow for a possible short ....perahps a retest of 1.3100 BUT beware anything can happen but some things are more probable and some things are less probable and there is a possible bounce as price rumbles along above this line...keep connecting the most recent low pivot/p2 to see what may happen.

EurUsd...1.3055 The line that keeps on giving!

My obsession with historical forks is truely vindicated by this superb example of the CL from one of the dominant monthly forks in the EurUsd monthly chart. Draw the following fork on whatever platform you use and enjoy!
P0 1.0614 1991,P1 1.4535 March 95 & P2 .8225 Oct 2000

Touchdown!! Euro$ & Gold

Served up on a plate !!! Demonstrably weak!!
The EurUsd pair is heading to make a a superb CL touch down also ( see below)

EURUSD...trying to edge higher

Same time frame. Could see 1st attempt at 1.3300 tonight?


And below the bigger picture heading for 1.3380...If it gets there is another matter altogether!

EURUSD & Gold

Carrying on from yesterdays post. This phenomenon (of price hitting a median/reaction or any other type of associated line and then bouncing/recoiling from it with energy and rising/falling until the energy diminishes, perhaps in a series on consecutive small waves ( sometimes) with lower highs until it is ready to approach the line again and try to continue its trend objective) is seen every day in every time frame. Heres a major ML previously posted about from one of the important monthly forks (P0 1.0614 in July1991, P1 1.4535 March 1995, P2 .8225 October 2000). Its CL currently sits at 1.3050 and you can see price bounce on the head of pin when it hits it. Recently it has been one of the important support/resistance levels and i suspect price will be visiting it again shortly. Its always a possible area for a contra trend trade opportunity.
I suggest you draw the fork on your own platform and watch it and let me know if you think i am correct. There are currently 15 'historic' ML's that i have on my EURUSD charts between 1.35 and 1.25 and every one of them has a similar effect. These i guess are real pivot levels.

GOLD:
Gold looks very weak . Next target is the LMLP of the failed fork which will produce a bounce but not a reversal of trend..perhaps a bounce to retest 1700$? Thats where to get your short entry if sentiment and price action fail at that time. The current LMLP lies at around 1650$...
Also remember how price bounced off the Mod Schiff CL back in late December ( arrowed) ?
see below

EURUSD...reversal?

Ouch! I had a nice little short in the triple tops of earlier this mornings congestion( arrowed in the chart below at the CL failure) just under 1.3190 -target this centre line above at about 1.3155... this maynot be a full blown reversal but it was almost painful to watch as price just couldnt make it lower than the low 1.3160's. I kept my short position waiting for a failure and ended up with about 5 pips/nearly break even. Not a great result and stupidly i forgot about this template (above) with an important rection line across the 1.3150 level.
Is/was this the low? or are we going to make a violent inverted 'V' shaped move down of the same magnetude? It looks to me as though we may go higher if price can break convincingly over 1.3200. This will then set the tone for the next few days. Either way-up or down- we are now see market indications for the coming days.

Corn (H12)

No position yest but this looks like a restest and possible failure of the black UMLP in this fork. It (price) may well have yet another third attempt to get over here and there is no doubt that until we see a LL to go short on a simple whimm would be like standing in the path of a train- stupid especially as price and trend has been strong but as i mentioned in last nights post itmay just be worth watching as we have seen no appraciable retracement for many days since the e/o Jan and if you take the whole trend since last Autumn. Simple charts shown here with one of the many odd smaller forks i use to guage reaction lines using the first HH before any retracement.

Gold..Double tops=Double trouble

Various templates and time frames all carrying on from yesterdays post ( failed fork). There is a double top here but i do not expect a break below 1700 yet. CL Objectives are approx 1678 then down to 1600 and 1580.. Thats a big ask and only a full blown reversal would see this sort of levels. I am undecided but this recent formation has been a long time coming so expect further weakness but watch for a break above 1729/1730 which would indicate perhaps a resurge of energy upwards. ( see below)