Thursday, 23 April 2015

Critical times for equity markets. Reaction line analysis doesn't mean mental paralysis! SP, YM,Dax, etc.

We have seen a period of sideways since late Feb 2015 and since then we have made two lower highs albeit contrasted with a higher low. The trend up may still be viable and classic Andrews ML's drawn off the pivots available and in the daily or 240 min TF seem to indicate a reluctance of price to reach any serious centre line of these forks. However I find that classic Andrews theory often does not work well when applied to sideways or 'coiling' markets. It seems clear that we are either building a top here or consolidating before moving higher.

The Dax has filled the gap this morning at  11700 level but there remains another gap and a superb fork is 'in play'.
 The ES clearly shows the effect of the long term reaction lines seen below

 This green fork below is interesting and now shows price hopping along the LMP

For my small but Merry band of existing subscribers we now are to consider setups for a long term breakout either way. With the June emini S &P 2100 remains a serious area of resistance and is captured visually by the downsloping reaction lines from the big monthly p-forks. A break above 2100 will open the door for prices next leg up. Failure here would result in a return to 1900 ie  a decent retracement.

Here is an update: After a false break both ways on EP M15 we have seen a beautiful ML below:

Plus these GAP forks for the 2100 level breakout:

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