Wednesday, 18 February 2015

Soft and grains technical outlook (2nd Q 2015) plus EURUSD...mega important support/resistance and potential reversal levels. Coffe, Cocoa, Sugar, Wheat


Here below are some illuminating long term charts for Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar and the grains ( Beans, What and Corn.)and are edited and reproduced here from our subscriber weekly and monthly PDF market report. Daily ST amd MT setups plus LT on sub only.
Following on from my last post lets have a look at Wheat:
Here is the weekly chart going back 5 yrs to 2010: Note the pivots 1-9. The classic Andrews fork would be drawn off 4,3 & 8. Our technical analysis reveals that these pivots all contain multiple relationships and this is confirmed in the greater part by their reaction lines. The down sloping blue fork is dominant at this point in time and we are clearly in a period of falling prices.

 Please note the reaction lines as we change the top pivot between 7,8 & 9. We have not reproduced all the reaction lines and median lines combos simply for the sake of clarity and brevity as we wish to look at more recent price activity but they all produce ML & RL's with an undenaible correlation with price and  often it is breathtaking such as the 4-3-8 pitchfork above ( 2nd RL)

 

Now below  we see the additional twoPF's : A-B-C and B-C-D

  
First observations are the creation of pivot D at the confluence of the blue PF's upper median line parallel and  the 1st RL of the PF: A-B-C clearly indicated by the down pointing red arrows. This enables us to draw PF: B-C-D and we have a high probability reversal (allbeit contratrend) at the blcak centre line (just above 490-00) and the confluence of the 2nd down sloping RL of the blue down/sloping PF  derived from pivots 4,3,9.

The position of the previous RL has simply been left by a manual overlaid trendline and can be seen supporting price from pivot C towards pivot D. You can see also after the centre line has been touched we are being carried higher by the upsloping reaction line and are currently at 540-00 (W H15).
  

Here's the original position below without the upsloping RL and the subtle variations can be explored by any reader using the ML4  free coded MQ4 PF tool found here

 

It would not be unreasonable to suggest there is a high probability of price rising along this uploping RL until it encounters the down sloping RL that caused pivot D between 550 to 575 (dependent on price and time). seen below:
 

 Now lets look at the Soybeans: I will let these charts speak for themselves. Please note all reaction lines are drawn by automated indicator and are fixed but you may observe subtle differences in location and angle and scale.





  We now turn our attention to Coffee.Important gaps have been marked in highlighted pink and should be carefully observed as areas of great importance and support/ resistance.





Please remind yourself of this link and image( screenshot Dec 2013)  showing the recent long term low just below and around 100c/lb
http://medianlinetrader.blogspot.fr/2013/12/coffee-kc-hits-bottomlooks-like-we-have.html
 And now onto Cocoa:






 and my recent favourite Sugar:










 Lastly: EURUSD and please refer to my previous recent post which gives the mega fork
http://medianlinetrader.blogspot.fr/2015/01/eurusd-on-historical-median-line.html 
Below...hand drawn charts

 metatrader

 another template with same historic PF's....look at those Reaction lines!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We declared a long term long position Feb 12th 2015  1.1347 ( original stp 1.1310 )




 To subscribe for weekly PDF pls email : guy@commodity-analysis.co.uk

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