Wednesday, 4 May 2011

EURGBP

The reason i have shown this chart is to illustrate the blue monthly fork where P0 does not necessarily need to be behind (in terms of price and time) P1 and P2.
I found this out by accident a few years ago and the power of the RL's/WL's/inner lines etc are just as effective as an ordinary Andrews/Schiff or mod Schiff , Gibbs or other fork construction and other fork constructions as seen in Dr Dologas books. In this case (see monthly chart) the RL from this 'unorthodox' fork has had a profound effect on price both supporting at the .7800 area and then resisting at the .9000 area. This fork is what is sometimes called a 'Action Reaction' fork construction where P0 is between P1 & p2. Not only do its reaction lines and inner lines work well ( not shown for the sake of chart clarity)but its CL had the vital piercing (strong penetration) back in Dec 2008. I have followed this fork for over a year and the turquoise appeared broken and ineffective and un-tradable in the daily chart but in the grand scheme of weekly and monthly chart time frame it seems to be an effective hold but any long trade would not have been possible as the stop would have to be many hundred basis points.
Also see in the daily chart the minor pivots( arrowed) all contribute a viable forks with RL/WL (not drawn here).If every major and minor pivot could be drawn as a fork in relationship to every other pivot this would give you the ultimate matrix of price itself . The trend/direction or momentum of price remains a separate & elusive important element.
So where for EurGbp? A retouch back down on the RL seems probable but will we then see price break higher into a new range towards the high 90's & ultimately parity? Note that the CL of P0 & P00 forks still have to be touched. If price becomes exhausted we could see a sharp fall before consolidation and another try upwards.

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