This currency pair is one i follow closely but rarely trade. As with any pair it has its own character and is here displayed as the inverse of EurGbp. in the weekly chart you can see some very simple forks. The red and blue forks all have a down-sloping attitude but since the bounce off just above parity we have seen a 25% retracement since the 2000 high of over 1.70 and a .382Fib RT from the 1.50 2007 high. As i have previously stated i believe that price is in action in multiple forks in multiple TFs'and this is easily proved by watching the reaction and median lines from these multiple forks as they determine new high & low pivots at areas of confluence. For this reason i would (if i had time) draw all the forks & RL's using all the different P0's ( 1-5).
If we look at the daily chart you can see the downsloping mauve fork where price has not touched the CL and has rallied in the opposite direction after forming a low pivot bang-on the blue LMLP-perfect.
Now price is approaching the mauve upper MLP for the second time (the first time it fell back sharply at the confluence of the blue CL & the mauve UMLP). I have observed this type of pattern and we have HH's and HL's (with one small exception) and price is reacting well within the ML'&RL's in the two UP sloping forks which are blue and grey( Schiff and mod Schiff and using the all time low as P0). If we draw another red modified Schiff fork from the most recent significant pivots in the 240 or 60 min TF we can see that it has the same attitiude as the mauve d/s fork and indeed shares a median line at the critical 1.20 level. I am not advocating a short sale at these down sloping ML's which would be crazy (plus i am already long @1.1796 ( -eur+GBP @.8477) but suggest that price may move clear above the blue/mauve and red ML's and then the RL's that are clearly seen coming on the top right HS of the lower 240 & 60 min chart. To me this looks like a market that is giving all the signals that it wants to go higher and a daily chart retouch on the top of these ML's may provide the opportunity for a long entry above 1.20 and after a retest. I will revert & repost as this plays out in the coming days and weeks.
Tuesday, 15 February 2011
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